[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Harvey is centered off the Texas coast near 28.2N
94.6W at 29/1200 UTC or about 80 nm ESE of Port O'Connor Texas and
about 125 nm SSW of Port Arthur Texas moving ENE at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is present N of the center over Texas
and Louisiana from 30N to 31N between 92W and 96W. A surface
trough curves south from the center to 22N93W. Scattered moderate
and strong convection is occurring E of the trough within 30 nm
either side of a line from 23N92.5W to 26N91W to 30N91W. See
latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered near 34.1N 77.7W at
29/1200 UTC or about 15 nm SE of Wilmington North Carolina and
about 65 nm WSW of Cape lookout North Carolina moving NE at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is seen from 31N to 33N between 75W
and 77W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
found elsewhere S of 34N and N of a line from 33N73W to 29N77W.
The system will move along the North Carolina coast today to east
of Cape Hatteras this evening, then NE into the open North
Atlantic well to the S of New England on Wed. See latest
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic associated with a 1008 mb
low that is located near 14N22W. The wave axis extends from 20N23W
to the low to 06N21W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is observed from 14N to 17N between
23W and 26W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
found elsewhere from 12N to 17N between 23W and 30W. The wave is
embedded in an area of deep layer moisture as seen on TPW
satellite imagery. This system has become better organized since
yesterday, and a tropical depression could form from this system
over the eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in portions of
the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. There is a medium chance
for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending
from 24N39W to 12N37W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave
coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough in initial model wind
fields. TPW satellite imagery shows an area of modest deep layer
moisture located on the east side of the wave. Satellite imagery
also shows the presence of a large area of Saharan dust to the N
and W of the wave. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed from 08N to 11N between 38W and 43W.

A tropical wave over the E Caribbean extends from 24N67W to
09N68W moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The wave coincides with modest
700 mb troughing in initial model wind fields. SSMI TPW imagery
shows this wave is embedded in an area of modest deep layer
moisture. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm of the
wave axis.

A tropical wave over the west central Caribbean extends from
20N78W to 10N80W, moving W around 15 kt. The wave coincides with
subtle 700 mb troughing in initial model wind fields. TPW
satellite imagery shows this wave is embedded in an area of modest
deep layer moisture. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring within
90 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal in west Africa near
18N16W to low pres 1008 mb near 14N22W to 12N36W to 09N48W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N48W to 08N57W. Other than the convection
associated with the tropical waves, there is no significant
convection associated with either the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Harvey has a low-level exposed center located over
the Gulf of Mexico near 28N95W. Associated deep convection is
displaced NE of the center over SE Texas and SW Louisiana. Feeder
bands on the east side of a surface trough extending S from Harvey
continue to produce isolated moderate convection over the north
central Gulf, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Inland flooding is
forecast to continue over Texas and Louisiana for the next few
days. Elsewhere, a surface trough traverses N Florida and the NE
Gulf from 32N80W to 27N87W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is seen from 31N to 33N between 75W and 77W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from S
of 34N and N of a line from 33N73W to 29N77W. An upper level
trough is located over central Texas. Divergent upper level winds
are located east of the trough axis over the Gulf of Mexico and
Florida N of 26N. Harvey is expected to drift slowly NE along the
middle and upper coasts of Texas through Tuesday night, then move
inland over SW Louisiana on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean waters. See
the tropical waves section for additional details. The eastern
terminus of the E Pacific monsoon trough passes over Costa Rica,
and Panama and producing scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection over the Caribbean S of 13N and W of 76W. In the upper
levels, an upper level low is centered over the Gulf of Honduras
near 17N86W enhancing showers over the Yucatan and Central
America.

...HISPANIOLA...

Relatively dry weather prevails over the island. Expect more
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 hours as an
approaching tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough
approaching from the N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered N of the area near
34.1N77.7W. This system continues to impact the northwestern
portion of the discussion area N of 29N with convection, 20 to 25
kt winds and seas to 9 ft. See above. A broad 1028 mb high
centered just N of the Azores near 40N28W ridges SW to western
Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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