[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
812 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 28.2N 95.5W at 29/0000 UTC
or about 48 nm E of Port O'Connor Texas moving ESE at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is N of the center from 29N-31N between 95W-97W.
Isolated moderate convection is over a large area E of the center
associated with feederbands from 27N-34N between 86W-93W. The
center of Harvey is now over the Gulf of Mexico. See latest
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered near 32.4N 79.7W at
29/0000 UTC or about 30 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina and
about 139 nm SW of Wilmington North Carolina. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 31N-33N
between 77W-80W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
28N-34N between 75W-81W. The system will move over or near the
coast of South Carolina tonight and move along the North Carolina
Outer Banks on Tuesday. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic associated with a 1008 mb
low that is located near 12N22W. The wave axis extends from
18N22W to the low to 06N21W, moving W at 5 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is within 240 nm of the low center. The wave is in a
very moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. This system has
become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression
could form in two or three days over the eastern Atlantic.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in portions of
the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. There is a medium chance
for this system to become a tropical cyclone within the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 25N35W to 10N37W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with
an amplified 700 mb trough. SSMI TPW imagery shows moderate
amounts of moisture. Satellite imagery also shows the presence of
Saharan dust N and W of the wave environment. No significant deep
convection is associated with the wave at this time.

A tropical over the E Caribbean wave extends from 25N65W to
10N66W moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave coincides with
a 700 mb trough. SSMI TPW imagery shows moderate amounts of
moisture. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean extends from 19N76W to
09N78W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with a slight
700 mb trough. SSMI TPW imagery shows moderate amounts of
moisture. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 12N21W to 10N38W to
11N40W to 08N49W. Besides the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 08N-10N
between 32W-37W. In addition, a surface trough extends from
15N50W to 08N50W with isolated moderate convection within 180 nm
either side of the trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Harvey has an exposed center over the Gulf of
Mexico with convection N of the center over SE Texas. Feederbands
continue to produce isolated moderate convection over the north
central Gulf, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Inland flooding is
forecast to continue for the next few days. Elsewhere, a surface
trough traverses N Florida and the NE Gulf from 30N80W to 28N85W
with isolated moderate convection within 120 nm of the trough. In
the upper levels, an upper level trough is over central Texas
with diffluence over the the E Gulf and Florida. Harvey is
expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper coasts of
Texas through Tuesday night, then move inland over the
northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean waters. See
above. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough extends
over Costa Rica, and Panama producing scattered moderate
convection. Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. In the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the Cayman
Islands near 19N81W enhancing showers over Jamaica and E Cuba.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers presently are over Haiti. Expect more showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 hours with the
approach of the next tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten centered N of the area continues
to impact the northwestern portion of the discussion area with
convection, and 35 kt winds. Seas are up to 13 ft. See above. A
1028 mb high is centered W of the Azores near 40N30W producing
surface ridging to the central Atlantic near 30N60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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