[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 28.6N 95.8W at 28/1800 UTC
or about 35 nm ENE of Port O'Connor Texas moving ESE at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
convection and tstms are N of 23N between 88W and 95W. Isolated
showers and tstms are elsewhere N 21N between 85W and 97W. The
center of Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the middle and
upper coasts of Texas through Tuesday night. See latest
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered near 31.8N 80.3W at
28/1800 UTC or about 60 nm SSW of Charleston South Carolina and
about 190 nm SW of Wilmington North Carolina. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate convection and
scattered tstms are N of 29N between 77W and 80W. The system will
move over or near the coast of South Carolina today and move along
the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. See latest
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low
that is located near 12N21W. The wave axis extends from 19N20W to
the low to 06N20W and is forecast to move at 5 kt within the next
24 hours. The wave is in a region of low to moderate vertical
wind shear and CIRA LPW imagery show dry air intrusion to the wave
environment mainly NW of the low center. Moderate moisture at the
lower levels and middle to upper level diffluent flow support
scattered moderate convection from 07N to 14N between 21W and 29W. This
system has become better organized since yesterday, and a
tropical depression could form in a few days over the eastern
Atlantic. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. There is a
medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone within
the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
24N33W to 13N35W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours.
Enhanced infrared satellite imagery show extensive Saharan dry
air and dust in the wave environment, which is hindering
convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
23N62W to 11N62W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical wind shear, and CIRA LPW imagery show patches of
dry air in its environment. Shallow moisture is supporting
scattered showers and tstms from 16N to 22N between 60W and 66W,
including the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N74W to 09N75W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region
of strong vertical wind shear, however shallow moisture and upper
level diffluence support scattered showers and isolated tstms from
15N to 18N between 75W and 78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 10N30W to 11N38W to
10N53W. Besides from the convection associated with the tropical
wave in the E Atlc, scattered moderate convection is from 08N to
12N between 30W and 44W. A surface trough extends from 16N48W to
07N49W with similar convection within 210 nm either side of its
axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Harvey is crossing the coastline of Texas and
moving into the NW Gulf waters. The rainbands associated with
this system continue to support scattered moderate convection and
tstms N of 23N between 88W and 95W. To the east of Harvey, upper
level divergence associated with a middle to upper level ridge
centered near 25N90W support scattered showers and tstms in the NE
Gulf N of 25N. A middle level short-wave trough is over the
western Florida Peninsula extending to adjacent waters where it
supports a 1009 mb low near 28N83W, which is forecast to move
across Florida today and merge with Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten
early Tue. The remainder of the Gulf is under mostly gentle to
moderate southerly winds. Harvey is expected to remain in the
vicinity of the Texas coast through mid-week. For further details
see special features.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean waters, one
along 63W generating showers in the NE basin, and a second wave
along 76W supporting showers SSE of Jamaica and in the Windward
Passage. Between these two waves, middle level diffluence support
scattered showers and tstms from 12N to 15N between 65W and 71W.
In the SW Caribbean, a 1010 mb low sits in the eastern extension
of the EPAC monsoon trough near 10N77W, which is supporting
scattered moderate to isolated strong showers and tstms S of 13N
between 75W and 82W. Strong vertical wind shear and dry air
subsidence is elsewhere, thus supporting fair weather. Moderate
to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through
Tuesday night. Thereafter, trades across south-central portions of
the basin will increase as a center of high pressure establishes
in central Atlc waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave is moving across central Caribbean waters with
axis along 75W and supports isolated showers in the Windward
Passage and the western half of the Island. This wave will
continue to move W away from the Island today, however a second
tropical wave, currently in the E Caribbean, will move over the
Island Tue morning supporting scattered to isolated showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten centered N of the area continues
to impact the northwestern portion of the discussion area with
scattered showers and tstms, and wind gusts to 40 kt. Seas are up
to 13 ft. Diffluent flow between an elongated upper low over the W
Caribbean and a ridge over the central Caribbean support isolated
showers and tstms across the southern Bahamas. Farther east, the
northern portion of a tropical wave moving across E Caribbean
waters support scattered showers and tstms S of 22N between 61W
and 65W. In the northern-central Atlc waters, a middle to upper
level low support similar convection from 29N to 32N between 47W
and 51W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high
centered near the Azores at 39N31W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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