[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure, with high potential of becoming
tropical cyclone seven overnight, is located over western
Caribbean waters near 16.1N 82.7W at 0000 UTC, moving WNW at 10
kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Numerous moderate convection is within 180 nm north semicircle of
low center. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are
elsewhere from 11N to 20N between 77W and 83W. Potential Tropical
Cyclone Seven is forecast to move NW and intensify to a tropical
storm tonight near 16.6N 83.6W, continue to 18.0N 85.9W Mon, then
move inland near Chetumal Mexico late Mon. Potential Tropical
Cyclone Seven will continue through the SW Gulf as a tropical
storm Wed and Thu. Refer to the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc about midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, and is associated with
a 1012 mb low centered near 13N41W. The wave axis extends from
19N36W to the low to 08N43W, and is moving W at 10-15 kt. The
wave is mainly in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear,
however it continues to be severely affected by dry air intrusion
to its environment as shown by CIRA LPW and satellite enhanced
imagery. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the low center. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves generally west-northwestward across
the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles with axis
extending from 21N58W to 10N59W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This is a
very narrow wave, however associated with abundant low level
moisture as depicted by CIRA LPW. Middle level diffluent flow
support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from 16N to 21N
between 57W and 60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
08N24W to 12N35W to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to
06N55W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves,
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N
between 17W and 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle to upper level diffluent flow along the northern Gulf
support isolated showers generally N of 27N. Water vapor imagery
show dry air subsidence across the remainder Gulf, which is
supporting fair weather tonight. Stable conditions are also
supported by a surface ridge that extends from the Atlc across the
Florida Peninsula into the Gulf that support light to moderate
S-SE. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven currently located over west
Caribbean waters is forecast to move NW and intensify to a
tropical storm tonight near 16.6N 83.6W, continue to 18.0N 85.9W
Mon, then move inland near Chetumal Mexico late Mon. Potential
Tropical Cyclone Seven will continue through the SW Gulf as a
tropical storm Wed and Thu. See Special Features for further
details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure, with high potential of becoming a
tropical storm overnight, is located over western Caribbean
waters generating heavy showers and gusty winds. The center of the
system will pass north of Honduras tonight and early Monday, then
approach the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula Monday
afternoon. See the special features for further details. Scattered
heavy showers and tstms are along Cuba associated with the
tropical disturbance. Similar weather conditions are over the NW
basin W of 83W, the western half of Hispaniola, Jamaica and the
Windward Passage. Isolated showers are occurring in the Windward
Islands associated with a tropical wave that will move into the E
Caribbean tonight. Heavier showers are expected for the Leeward
Islands overnight being supported by diffluence aloft. See
tropical waves section for further details. Rainfall amounts up
to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are
possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through
Wednesday associated with the potential tropical cyclone seven.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are occurring across Haiti and the Windward
Passage associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven located
in the Caribbean between Jamaica and Honduras. Isolated showers
are in the southern half of the Dominican Republic. These showers
will continue through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are in the central Atlantic, one reaching the
Lesser Antilles tonight. See section above. The remainder basin
remain under fair weather conditions being supported by a broad
surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1022 mb highs...one near
29N70W and another near 28N48W. No major changes expected the next
two days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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