[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 16.8N 83.7W at 07/0600
UTC or about 110 nm NNW of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua
and Honduras border and about 280 nm ESE of Chetumal Mexico
moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 15N-20N
between 79W-85W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 11N-15N between 82W-89W across inland
portions of Central America. See latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 07N45W to 19N39W moving W at 10-15
kt. A 1012 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 13N42W
providing focus for isolated moderate convection from 12N-14N
between 41W-44W.

A tropical wave extends from 10N62W to 22N58W moving W at 10-15
kt. Well removed wave to the west is a 700 mb trough currently
over Puerto Rico and vicinity. While the low-level moisture
convergence remains ample about the axis...a vigorous middle to
upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near
21N65W and continues to provide a favorable diffluent environment
supporting scattered moderate convection from 16N-22N between
56W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
09N20W to 13N35W to 12N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 09N46W to 07N53W to 08N59W. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical waves...a 1012 mb low is
centered along the monsoon trough axis near 09N20W providing focus
for scattered moderate convection from 04N-09N between 17W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak upper level low is centered over the central Gulf near
25N91W and provides a weakness in upper level ridging between a
ridge anchored over NW Mexico and a ridge anchored over the
central Bahamas. Overall...mostly clear skies and fair conditions
prevail tonight as a surface ridge axis extends from a 1022 mb
high centered in the SW North Atlc near 29N70W across the central
Florida peninsula to the NE Mexico coast near 25N98W. Late evening
convection continues to dissipate across the southern Florida
peninsula and the coastal NW Gulf waters with gentle to moderate
S-SE winds expected through Monday. By Monday night...the surface
ridge axis is forecast to move northward as Tropical Storm
Franklin begins to impact the Yucatan peninsula and track into the
SW Gulf waters on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Primary concern is Tropical Storm Franklin for the western
Caribbean this evening as it tracks WNW toward the Yucatan
peninsula during the next 24 to 36 hours. Scattered showers and
tstms are occurring generally N of 11N W of 79W. Farther east...a
majority of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the
influence of NW flow aloft and fairly tranquil conditions this
evening. However a tropical wave is analyzed along 60W/61W moving
across the Lesser Antilles generating isolated showers and
possible isolated tstms. Strong convection is noted NE of the
Leeward Islands occurring from 16N-22N between 56W-61W and
continues to be enhanced by an upper level low centered N of
Puerto Rico near 21N65W. The wave is expected to move westward
with increased cloudiness and precipitation expected across Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola Monday and Tuesday. Conditions will improve
thereafter.

...HISPANIOLA...
A few lingering isolated showers are occurring this evening across
the island and are expected to continue gradually dissipating.
Fair conditions lie to the east as an upper level low and
associated drier air currently centered N of Puerto Rico near
21N65W drift westward and will impact the region through Monday
night. However...an approaching tropical wave is expected to
increase cloudiness and precipitation across the island Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the SW North Atlc near
26N76W supporting a 1022 mb high centered near 29N70W. Mostly
fairly conditions prevail...however a few isolated showers are
possible S of 27N W of 70W embedded within moderate tradewind
flow. Farther east...another 1022 mb high centered in the central
Atlc near 29N48W is continuing to provide fair weather for much of
the discussion area N of the deep tropics.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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