[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong tropical wave is located in the west central Caribbean
with axis extending from central Cuba near 22N79W to an embedded
1010 mb low near 14N80W to central Panama near 08N80W, moving
WNW 10 to 15 kt.  Buoy 42057 is reporting E to NE winds 25 kt.
Strong convection is located within a 60 to 90 nm radius of the
low center.  Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
located up to 180 nm east of the wave axis and 90 nm west of the
wave axis.  The wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.  Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located east of the Lesser Antilles with the
axis extending from 20N55W to 09N58W, moving W at 15 kt.  The
wave is in a region of moderate vertical wind shear and is
easily identifiable from the latest visible satellite imagery.
The wave has a 700 mb trough W of the current position in the
far eastern Caribbean.  Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm either side of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is located from 19N36W to 10N40W and
is moving W at 10-15 kt.  A 1011 mb low is located W of the wave
near 11N42W.  The wave axis is well depicted at 700 mb and in
two days will be located along 50W.  Widely scattered moderate
convection is located from 10N-17N between 35W-42W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N14W to
08N25W to 13N38W to 08N47W.  The ITCZ extends from 08N47W to
12N57W to 10N53W.  Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is along and off the coast of W Africa from 06N-10N between 12W-
19W.  Similar convection is from 07N-10N between 24W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge aloft covers the western half of the Gulf of Mexico
and light variable winds aloft cover most of the eastern half of
the Gulf.  Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are located N of 27N east of 89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A special feature tropical wave with embedded low is moving
across the west central Caribbean.  Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are approaching the Windward islands in advance of
the Tropical Wave.  Cyclonic flow aloft covers the eastern third
of the Caribbean in association with a cyclonic circulation
north of Puerto Rico.

...HISPANIOLA...

A middle/upper level cyclonic circulation is forecast to move
west to the north of the island over the next two days.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop later this afternoon and evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A well-defined middle/upper level cyclonic circulation is
located near 22.5N63W...about 10 degrees in diameter...and is
moving west about 15 kt.  Another cyclonic circulation aloft is
centered near 28N28W and is forecast to move north.  A surface
ridge extends through 32N30W to a 1022 mb High near 28N48W to a
1022 mb High near 29N70W to 28N75W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAB
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