[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
602 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic, extending its axis
from 18N23W to 06N23W. This position was based on 700 mb
streamlines analysis and model diagnostics. SSMI TPW imagery shows
the wave in an area of abundant moisture. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along the wave's axis and vicinity from
06N-12N and east of 30W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N39W to
06N41W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows the wave
is on the leading edge of a moist area. Despite this, the Saharan
Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust to the north of the
wave's axis. At this time, no convection is related to this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 20N65W
to 07N65W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows abundant
moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model
depicts a large trough with this wave. Scattered moderate convection
prevails in this wave's environment affecting the east and
central Caribbean mainly east of 72W. Fresh to locally strong
east to southeast winds were noted with this wave earlier. This
conditions will continue as it moves across the eastern Caribbean.

A tropical wave is over Central America and the EPAC, extending
its axis from 19N89W to 04N87W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW
imagery shows a large area of moderate moisture around this wave.
Isolated moderate convection is over El Salvador, Guatemala, and
the Yucatan Peninsula. This wave will continue moving west
enhancing convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W
to 13N21W to 11N46W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
begins and extends to 10N61W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along he
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 29N95W to 29N89W while another one
is from 30N87W to 30N83W. Scattered showers are observed along
these troughs affecting the northern Gulf waters mainly north of
28N. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate
convection across the central portion of the basin from 24N-27N
between 87W-92W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of
the basin anchored over the central Atlantic. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin,
with locally fresh southwesterly winds over the northeast Gulf
north of 28N and east of 85W. A similar scenario is expected
during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the easter Caribbean. See the
section above for details. In addition, isolated showers are noted
over the central Caribbean between 76W-84W mostly supported by
diffluence aloft. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin, with highest speeds near the tropical
wave along 64W. Expect for tropical waves to be the dominate
weather features during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over the southern portions of the island due
to the proximity of a tropical wave with axis currently along 66W.
Expect more activity to prevail during the next 24 hours as the
wave continues moving west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic. See the section
above for details. A broad surface ridge prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered overl Atlantic near 31N48W. Expect during the next 24 hours
for convection to develop again over the west Atlantic and near
the tropical waves.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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