[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1207 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 09N24W to 17N28W moving W at 5-10
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 21W-29W with
a stretched maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity extending from a
1014 mb low embedded within the monsoon trough near 10N19W and the
southern extent of the wave near 10N24W. Scattered moderate
convection associated with the low is from 05N-11N between 15W-
23W and scattered moderate convection associated with the wave is
from 05N-13N between 23W-32W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N47W to 17N39W moving W at 5-10
kt. The wave coincides with relatively sharp 700 mb troughing
between 36W-47W. The areal extent of the Saharan Air Layer across
the central tropical Atlc is inhibiting any significant deep
convection with the wave at this time.

A tropical wave extends from 10N67W to 19N66W moving W at 5-10 kt.
The wave continues moving within the southern periphery of a mid-
level ridge anchored over the SW North Atlc near 27N68W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection...likely enhanced due to
ample upper level diffluence...is occurring from 11N-17N between
60W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
09N20W to 09N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 10N48W to 12N66W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves...isolated moderate convection is from 06N-12N
between 47W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the lower Mississippi River valley this afternoon with the
base of the trough extending over the NW Gulf waters. The
troughing supports a surface trough extending from SE Georgia W-SW
to a weak 1015 mb low near 29N90W then to the Texas coast near
28N97W. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized along this
boundary with scattered showers and tstms occurring mainly N of
27N and across inland portions of SE Louisiana...southern
Alabama...and northern Florida...including the panhandle region.
The boundary is expected to drift northward through the evening
and overnight hours with light to gentle anticyclonic winds
expected to prevail Friday. Elsewhere...a surface ridge extends
across the southern Florida peninsula to the east-central coast of
Mexico near 20N98W. Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are
expected to persist with the ridge remaining in place across the
basin through Wednesday of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean generating
a broad area of scattered showers and tstms generally E of
70W...and an area N of 16N between 70W-74W in the adjacent coastal
waters of Hispaniola. Elsewhere...low-level moisture convergence
of moderate to fresh trades is generating scattered showers and
tstms from 12N-16N between 76W-85W...including inland portions of
Nicaragua. As the tropical wave along 67W moves westward...fresh
to strong winds are expected to accompany the wave with continued
strong convection through Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the southern
adjacent coastal waters due to an approaching tropical wave across
the eastern Caribbean Sea. The tropical wave is expected to pass S
of the island tonight into early Friday and then across the
remainder of the central Caribbean on Friday. Continued scattered
showers and tstms are expected through Friday across the region
with any lingering activity movintern Caribbean
during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Across the SW North Atlc...an upper level ridge remains anchored
in the vicinity of 28N72W supporting a ridge axis extending from
near 28N73W W-SW to the southern Florida peninsula and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fair skies and tranquil conditions
prevail with only a few possible isolated showers and tstms
occurring N of 30N W of 77W as a weak elongated area of low
pressure extends from southern South Carolina to the north-
central Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build in during
the weekend keeping any significant deep convection generally N of
the discussion area. Farther east...a mid-level shortwave trough
is noted on water vapor near 34N66W providing focus for scattered
showers and tstms occurring from 30N-34N between 64W-69W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc are
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1026
mb highs...one centered S of the Azores near 34N27W and the other
centered near 31N49W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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