[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave was introduced to this analysis over the eastern
Atlantic, extending its axis from 18N21W to 06N20W. This position
was based on 700 mb streamlines analysis and model diagnostics.
SSMI TPW imagery shows the wave in an area of abundant moisture.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along and east of the
wave's axis between 07N-14N and east of 21W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N37W to
07N39W, moving west at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows the wave is
on the leading edge of a well moist area. The Saharan Air Layer
imagery shows dry air and dust to the north of the wave axis. At
this time, no convection is related to this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 20N64W
to 07N63W, moving west at 15-20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a
abundant moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the
GFS model also depicts a large trough with this wave. Scattered
moderate convection prevails in this wave's environment affecting
the east and central Caribbean mainly east of 73W. Fresh to
locally strong east to southeast winds were noted with this wave
earlier. This conditions will continue as it moves across the
eastern Caribbean.

A tropical wave is over Central America and the EPAC, extending
its axis from 19N88W to 05N83W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW
imagery shows a large area of moderate moisture around this wave.
Scattered moderate convection is over Honduras, El Salvador, and
Guatemala. This wave will continue moving across the Yucatan
Peninsula and EPAC waters enhancing convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 08N21W to 11N46W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
begins and extends to 11N62W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from
06N-10N between 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 30N89W to 30N84W. Scattered showers
are observed along the trough affecting the Florida Panhandle and
adjacent waters. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered
moderate convection across the eastern half of the basin from
25N-28N and east of 92W. A surface ridge extends across the
remainder of the basin anchored over the central Atlantic.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
across the basin, with locally fresh southwesterly winds over the
northeast portion north of 28N and east of 85W. A similar
scenario is expected during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. In addition, isolated showers are noted over
the central Caribbean between 70W-80W mostly supported by
diffluence aloft. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin, with highest speeds near the tropical
wave along 64W. Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate
weather over the basin during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over the southern portions of the island due
to the proximity of a tropical wave with axis currently along 64W.
Expect more activity to prevail during the next 24 hours as the
wave continues moving west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic. See the section
above for details. Isolated showers are noted over the west
Atlantic west of 77W. A broad surface ridge prevails emainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over
the central Atlantic near 32N43W. Expect during the next 24 hours
for convection to continue over the west Atlantic and near the
tropical waves.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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