[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Emily is centered near 30.9N 78W or about 204 nm
northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida moving north-northeast at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 26N-36N between 74W-77W. Emily will
continue to move away from the Florida peninsula tonight while
losing its tropical characteristics when it interacts with a
frontal system. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N31W to
06N33W, moving west at 15 kt. SSMI TPW shows the wave is on the
leading edge of a moist area. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows
dry air and dust west of the wave's axis inhibiting deep
convection. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also indicates
broad troughing with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N54W to
05N54W, moving west at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area
of moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS
model also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan Air
Layer imagery shows dry air and dust north of this wave, mainly
north of 18N. Isolated moderate convection is observed within 240
nm of the wave's axis, S of 15N.

A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 19N80W to
07N80W, moving west at 20-25 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large
area of moderate moisture surrounding this wave. The 700 mb
guidance from the GFS model also depicts a trough with this wave.
The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust to the
north of the wave. Isolated moderate convection is within 300 nm
of the wave axis, mainly south of 15N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of African coast
near 15N17W to 15N24W to 11N34W to 10N53W. The ITCZ begins west of
a tropical wave near 10N56W to 08N60W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is along the coast of Africa from 08N-17N and east of 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the north-central Gulf from 28N84W, to a
1011 mb low near 27N87W, to 27N94W. Scattered showers are south of
these features mainly east of 90W. Scatterometer data depicts a
light to gentle cyclonic flow across the basin, with higher speeds
near the surface low. Expect for the surface trough to drift north over
the next 24 hours with convection. The surface low will dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. See the
section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is noted
over the western half of Cuba and Central America. Further E,
scattered moderate convection is over the E Caribbean E of 70W
supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with highest speeds
within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia and over the Gulf
of Honduras. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west
enhancing convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are the island mainly over the western portion.
This activity will dissipate tonight. Expect for the convection
currently over the east Caribbean to reach Hispaniola during the
next 24 hours.
EAN...

Tropical Depression Emily and two tropical waves are moving
across the Atlantic basin. See the sections above for details.
Aside from these features, the remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered
near 32N44W. Expect for the remnants of Emily to continue moving
north-northeast while weakening during the next 24 hours. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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