[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012329
TWDAT

ical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
729 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Emily is centered near 30.3N 77.7W or about
191 nm NE of Cape Canaveral, Florida moving NE at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 27N-31N between 76W-78W. Emily will continue
to pull away from the Florida peninsula tonight. Emily is also
forecast to lose its tropical characteristics later tonight or on
Wednesday when it interacts with a frontal system. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from 18N31W to a 1011 mb
low near 11N32W to 06N31W, moving west at 15 kt. SSMI TPW shows
the wave is on the leading edge of a moist area. The Saharan Air
Layer imagery shows dry air and dust NW of the wave axis, N of
13N. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also indicates broad
troughing with this wave. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
the wave axis S of 12N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 19N52W to 05N53W,
moving west at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of
moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model
also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan Air Layer
imagery shows dry air and dust N of this wave, N of 18N. Isolated
moderate convection is within 240 nm of the wave axis, S of 14N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 20N79W to
08N79W, moving west at 20-25 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large
area of moderate moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance
from the GFS model also depicts a small trough with this wave. The
Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust NE of this wave.
Widely scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm of the wave
axis, S of 15N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of African
coast near 15N17W to 15N24W to 11N32W to 11N40W to 10N54W, where
scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and extends to
09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along
the coast of W Africa from 09N-13N between 13W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the north central Gulf of Mexico from
27N85W, to a 1013 mb low near 27N88W, to 28N94W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Scattered moderate
convection is also over the SE Gulf, S Florida, the Straits of
Florida, W Cuba, and the N Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper
levels, a large upper level high is centered over W Texas near
31N103W producing NE upper level flow over the Gulf of Mexico.
Expect the surface trough and low to drift N over the next 24
hours with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. See
above. Airmass scattered moderate convection is noted over most of
Cuba, and over Central America S of Belize. Further E, scattered
moderate convection is over the E Caribbean E of 69W, moving W.
In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered E of Honduras
near 13N83W. Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate weather
features over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are the island, moving from S to N. This
steering flow is due to an upper level high centered N of Puerto
Rico near 22N64W. Expect the convection over the E Caribbean to
reach 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Depression Emily, and two tropical waves are moving
across the Atlantic. See above. Scattered moderate convection is
over the N Bahamas. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 33N42W producing fair weather. Of note in the upper
levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 25N
and W of 70W. A small upper level low is over the central Atlantic
near 28N50W with cloudiness W of center. A large upper level high
is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N23W. Expect Emily to be
well off the South Carolina coast near 33N74W in 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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