[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N33W to
06N34W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW shows the wave is on
the leading edge of a moist area. The Saharan Air Layer imagery
shows dry air and dust west of the wave's axis inhibiting deep
convection. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also indicates
broad troughing with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N58W to
06N58W, moving west at 15-20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large
area of moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the
GFS model also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan
Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust north of this wave,
mainly north of 19N. Isolated moderate convection is observed
between 54W-65W, mainly south of 19N.

A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 19N82W to
08N81W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large
area of moderate moisture surrounding this wave. The 700 mb
guidance from the GFS model also depicts a trough with this wave.
The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust to the north
of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is south of 15N between
80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of African coast near
17N16W to 10N34W to 11N48W. The ITCZ begins from 11N48W to 10N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is along and east of the coast of
Africa from 06N-15N and east of 20W and from 09N-14N between
50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the north-central Gulf from 28N84W, to a
1012 mb low near 27N87W, to 26N91W. Isolated showers are near the
low and south of these features mainly east of 90W. A thermal
trough extends over the Bay of Campeche along 92W with no
convection at this time. Scatterometer data depicts a light to
gentle cyclonic flow across the basin, with higher speeds near the
low. Expect for the surface trough to drift north over the next
24 hours with convection. The surface low will dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. See the
section above for details. Isolated showers are noted over the
western half of Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Further east,
scattered moderate convection is over the east Caribbean east of
71W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with highest
speeds within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia and over the
Gulf of Honduras. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving
west enhancing convection. The next tropical wave will enter the
east Caribbean in 24 hours. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island. Expect for the convection
currently over the east Caribbean to reach Hispaniola during the
next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic basin. See the
sections above for details. The remnants of Emily are centered
north of the area, but scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail
south of the center affecting the west Atlantic waters mainly
north of 26N between 70W-78W. Aside from these features, the
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a trio of 1025 mb highs centered near 30N56W, 31N45W
and 34N26W. Expect for the remnants of Emily to continue moving
north-northeast while weakening during the next 24 hours.nge is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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