[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
10N14W to 03N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 03N22W to 01N30W to 03S42W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is south of 05N between 10W and 35W. Clusters of
moderate to strong convection are south of 05N, east of 03W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure northeast of the area extends across the region
this morning supporting moderate to fresh winds over the majority
of the Gulf basin. The exceptions are over the southeastern Gulf
where winds peak near 25 kt within about 90 nm north of western
Cuba, and also over the eastern Bay of Campeche, associated with
a thermal trough that as of 0300 UTC is along the western coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are being supported by upper level diffluence over
the southwestern Gulf from 21N to 25N W of 94W. Scattered showers
cover the southeastern Gulf in low level moisture. Expect winds
over the southern Gulf to decrease slightly through the late
morning this morning, before increasing again Saturday. The
showers over the southeastern Gulf will spread into the central
Gulf today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the western Caribbean supports moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds over the western and central
Caribbean, except fresh to strong winds within about 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia, the Lee of Cuba, and the Windward Passage. Low
pressure to the north of the eastern Caribbean is producing a
weak pressure pattern across the eastern Caribbean with gentle to
moderate winds prevailing. The current strong winds will decrease
slightly during the day today, and then increase once again
tonight. Southwestern flow aloft will draw moisture across the
eastern Caribbean starting today, bringing increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean starting
today and lasting into the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers in northerly flow will continue through early
Saturday. Winds will increase out of the northeast later on
Saturday as strong high pressure builds north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N31W and extends
to 26N40W to 25N50W, where it transitions to a stationary front to
26N60W to 27N66W, then transitions to an occluded front to 27N69W
to 24N70W. An area of low pressure of 1011 mb resides south of
the occluded front near 25N69W with a surface trough that extends
from the low to 24N64W to the Virgin Islands near 18N64W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 23N to 28N between
63W and 71W, and from 19N to 30N between 53W and 62W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the stationary front. Fresh
to strong east to northeast winds are occurring north of the
occluded front. Dissipating high pressure centered near 35N14W
covers the eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours new low
pressure will develop to the northeast of the current low, and the
current low will become absorbed by the new low as the entire
system moves northeast over the central Atlantic early this
weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this broad system.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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