[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Low pressure will develop over the southwest north Atlantic near
28N60W by tonight and then deepen over this weekend as it moves
northeast, merging with a larger system over the central Atlantic
on Saturday. A cold front will develop and extend SW from the low
Saturday into Saturday night. Strong high pressure behind the
front will support a tight pressure gradient that will produce
gale force winds to 40 kt N of 29N and W of the front beginning
0600 UTC Sunday morning. Please refer to the high seas forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
11N15W to 02N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 02N21W to 01N30W to 02S44W. Widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection are from 00N to 05N across the entire
basin.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure northeast of the area extends across the region
this morning supporting moderate to fresh winds over the majority
of the Gulf basin, except gentle winds over the north central
Gulf underneath the ridge axis. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are being supported by upper level diffluence over
the southwestern Gulf from 21N to 25N W of 94W. Additional scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the southeastern Gulf
from 23N to 27N between 84W and 89W. Little change is expected
over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase by late Saturday over
the southeastern Gulf as stronger high pressure builds northeast
of the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the western Caribbean supports moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds over the western and central
Caribbean, except fresh to strong winds within about 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia, the Lee of Cuba, and the Windward Passage. Low
pressure to the north of the eastern Caribbean is producing a
weak pressure pattern across the eastern Caribbean with gentle to
moderate winds prevailing. The current strong winds will decrease
slightly during the day today, and then increase once again
tonight. Southwesterly flow aloft will draw moisture across the
eastern Caribbean starting today, bringing increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean starting
today and lasting into the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

After a dry start today, expect low level moisture and showers to
increase as a trough reaches the northern portion of Hispaniola
by this afternoon. Winds will increase out of the northeast later
on Saturday as strong high pressure builds north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure of 1010 mb resides near 25N68W with a surface trough
that extends from the low to 22N68W to the Turks and Caicos near
21N74W. A stationary front extends from 25N52W to 27N66W, then
transitions to an occluded front to 27N69W to 25N70W. Another
surface trough extends south front the triple point of the fronts
near 27N66W to 23N63W to 18N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are from 24N to 29N between 62W and 69W, and from 22N to 30N
between 52W and 61W. Fresh to strong east to northeast winds are
occurring north of the occluded front. A cold front enters the
area of discussion near 31N29W and extends to 27N35W to 24N48W.
No significant convection is noted with this front over our area.
High pressure centered near 33N13W covers the remainder of the
eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours new low pressure will
develop to the northeast of the current low, and the current low
will become absorbed by the new low as the entire system moves
northeast over the central Atlantic early this weekend. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this broad
system. On Saturday night, gale force winds will develop behind a
cold front that will extend southwest from the low. Please refer
to the special features section for more details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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