[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
09N13W to 06N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 06N15W to 03N25W to 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is
south of 02N between 17W and 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a high pressure system located NE of the area,
continues to dominate the Gulf region. Under the influence of
this system, a moderate to fresh E to SE flow prevails. A thermal
trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then
move westward into the SW Gulf overnight where it will dissipate
each morning. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE winds
will accompany this trough through the weekend. Some cloudiness,
with likely embedded showers, is noted over the NW and north-
central Gulf, and along the coast of Mexico, mainly north of
Tuxpan. A patch of low level moisture is also seen over the SE
Gulf under an easterly wind flow. A ridge will persist across the
Gulf the remainder of the week into the weekend, with little
change in the weather pattern.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region supports moderate to fresh
easterly trades over the majority of the Caribbean Sea. The only
exceptions are fresh to locally strong winds along the northwestern
coast of Colombia, and in the Windward Passage. The most recent
scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. A
surface trough extends from the Atlantic and across the US Virgin
Islands. This trough has been drifted eastward since yesterday.
The San Juan Doppler Radar shows scattered showers in association
with this trough. Abundant tropical moisture, combined with the
local effects, is helping to induce convection over parts of
Puerto Rico. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade
wind flow, are noted across the remainder of the basin. The above
mentioned trough continues to disrupt the trade wind flow over the
northeastern Caribbean. Fresh winds near the coast of Colombia
will pulse to strong each night through Monday. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere through early Saturday. Winds
are forecast to increase to a fresh breeze on Sunday as high
pressure builds north of the area.

...HISPANIOLA...

A typical weather pattern for this time of the year will prevail
across the island over the next couple of days, with mainly
isolated showers and thunderstorms due to local effects.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low pressure system of 1011 mb continues to spin east of the
Bahamas. At 13/1800 UTC, the center is located near 25N67W. The
pressure gradient between this low and a high pressure located
near 36N60W is producing a large area of fresh to strong winds
within about 360 nm north semicircle of the low center. The low
is forecast to meander over this area through tonight, then shift
NE on Friday. High pressure will build in the wake of this
departing low pressure through this weekend bringing an increase
in winds and seas across the western Atlantic on Saturday, then
across the central Atlantic on Sunday. A cold front enters the
forecast area near 31N32W, and continues SW to 25N50W where it
transitions to a stationary front to 28N65W, then transitions
again to an occluded front to 28N68W to 25N71W. The aforementioned
low pressure is centered south of the occluded front. Mainly low
clouds are associated with the low. A 1023 mb high centered just E
of the Madeiras Islands dominates the remainder of the central
Atlantic and the eastern Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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