[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
09N13W to 03N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 03N22W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is near the
coast of South America south of the Equator west of 40W, and south
of 04N west of 48W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is south to the Equator to about 06S between 22W
and 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf and extends from SE
Louisiana to the far south Texas near 27N98W. Isolated showers are
associated with the front over the NW Gulf. This front is expected
to dissipate later today. A surface trough is just west of the
Florida west coast accompanied by isolated showers. High pressure
dominates the rest of the basin, as a ridge axis extends westward
across the northeast Gulf from high pressure over the western
Atlantic. The most recent scatterometer data showed fresh to
locally strong NE-E winds just and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula. These winds are associated with a thermal trough. This
trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then
move westward into the SW Gulf overnight where it will dissipate
each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region supports moderate to fresh
easterly trades over the majority of the Caribbean Sea. The only
exceptions are fresh to locally strong winds along the northwestern
coast of Colombia, in the Lee of Cuba, and the Windward Passage.
The most recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these
winds. A surface trough extends from the Atlantic and across the
Mona Passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
mainly east of the trough axis. The San Juan Doppler Radar shows
the convective activity related to this trough. Patches of low
level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted across
the basin. The above mentioned trough is helping to induce
convection over Puerto Rico, and is also helping to disrupt the
trade wind flow over the northeastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong
winds are expected in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage
each night through Friday. Pulsing strong winds are forecast near
the coast of Colombia at night through Sunday. Gentle to moderate
trades will prevail elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

A typical weather pattern for this time of the year will prevail
across the island over the next couple of days, with mainly
isolated showers and thunderstorms due to local effects.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low-level vort max or "screaming eagle" is noted on satellite
imagery rapidly moving westward across the Straits of Florida and
just north of Matanzas Cuba accompanying by some shower activity.
Moderate to fresh NE winds across the NW Bahamas and regional
waters are aslo transporting some shower activity across south
Florida and the Florida Keys. A cold front enters the discussion
area near 31N43W and extends to 26N53W where it transitions to a
stationary front to a 1014 mb low pressure located near 26N67W. A
trough extends from the low center to the Mona Passage. A recent
scatterometer pass shows very well the cyclonic circulation
associated with the low center as well as strong to minimal gale
force winds within about 180 nm on the northern semicircle of low.
A gale warning is in effect for this region. Fresh to strong
winds are also noted between the low and a 1028 mb high pressure
located north of area near 37N62W covering roughly the Atlantic
ocean between 60W and 67W. A band of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is on the east side of the low/trough within about
60 nm of a line from 28N66W to 26N64W to 26N64W. The low is
forecast to drift westward to a position near 25N68W by early
Thursday morning. A ridge dominates the remainder of the central
and eastern Atlantic with a 1025 mb high near 27N33W, and another
high center of 1022 mb between the Madeira and the Canary Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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