[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
736 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N67W. Gale
winds are within 180 nm N semicircle of the low with seas to 13
ft. Gale force winds are forecast until 13/1200 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
09N13W to 03N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 03N22W to 01S35W to the coast of South America near 03S42W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the Monsoon Trough and ITCZ
axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with 10-15 kt
easterly flow. Embedded scattered showers are moving W across
central and south Florida, and the SE Gulf, from the Atlantic.
More scattered showers are over NE Mexico N of Tampico, and S
Texas, also moving W. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W
Gulf of Mexico with axis along 97W. A small upper level trough is
over N Florida. Upper level moisture is over S Texas and the NW
Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Gulf. Expect
over the next 24 hours for scattered showers to continue to move W
over the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds just S of Cuba, and the strongest winds along the coast of
Colombia. A tail end of a surface trough is over Puerto Rico. Radar
imagery shows the showers reaching the Virgin Islands. Similar
showers are the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, scattered showers are
over N Colombia, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Jamaica,
and Hispaniola. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the
Caribbean Sea. Upper level moisture is over N Colombia and
Venezuela. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the
Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for the E Caribbean to
continue to have scattered showers due to the surface trough.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the surface
trough. Expect Haiti to have less showers over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N40W to
27N50W to 29N66W.  Scattered showers prevail within 120 nm of the
front. Further south, 1011 mb gale low is centered near 26N67W. A
surface trough extends S from the low to Puerto Rico near 18N66W.
Scattered showers are N of 18N between 60W-66W. A 1020 mb high is
over the central Atlantic near 27N31W. Another 1021 mb high is
over the E Atlantic N of the Canary Islands near 30N16W. Of note
in the upper levels, an upper level low is over the E Atlantic
near 27N68W. An upper level trough is N of 20N between 10W-35W.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the W Atlantic front to remain
quasi- stationary with continued scattered showers. Also expect
the W Atlantic gale low to drift W towards the Bahamas with
continued scattered showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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