[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
08N13W to 01N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 01N20W to 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N to
09N E of 17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 04N
between 11W and 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is has entered the northwest Gulf and extends from
30N93W to 28N97W. Moderate northeast winds are north of the front.
This front is expected to dissipate through this morning. A
surface trough is just west of the Florida west coast accompanied
by scattered showers. High pressure dominates the rest of the
basin, as a ridge axis extends westward across the northeast Gulf
from high pressure over the western Atlantic. This ridge supports
mainly moderate easterly winds over the gulf basin this morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region supports moderate to fresh
easterly trades over the majority of the Caribbean basin this
morning. The only exceptions are locally strong winds along the
northwestern coast of Colombia, the Lee of Cuba, and the Windward
Passage. A surface trough extends from the Atlantic and across
Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm
of either side of the trough axis. This trough is helping to
disrupt the trade wind flow over the northeastern Caribbean.
The strong winds will decrease during the day today, and will then
pulse back to strong tonight. Little change is expected elsewhere
over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over mainly
eastern Hispaniola this morning due a surface trough to the east
and abundant low level moisture over the region. Expect a gradual
drying trend through early Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N47W and extends
to 29N54W where it transitions to a stationary front to 28N63W,
then transitions there to an occluded front that extends to near
26N68W. A 1014 mb low is centered south of the occluded front near
25N66W with a surface trough that extends from the low southward
to Puerto Rico. Strong easterly winds are north of the low to 31N.
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 23N to 31N
between 56W and 70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 240 nm of either side of the trough S of 23N. High
pressure of 1023 mb centered near 28N40W dominates the central and
eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours the low will drift
westward with ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity within
several hundred nm of the system.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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