[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
08N13W to 01N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 01N22W to 03S40W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is
over Atlantic waters within 90 nm of the monsoon trough axis east
of 16W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within
210 nm of either side of the monsoon trough axis and ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating squall line is moving southeast over the
northwestern Gulf from 27N92W to 25N97W with winds gusting to 30
to 35 kt briefly at the passage of the squall line. Winds decrease
to 20 to 25 kt northwest of the squall line. As of 0300 UTC, a
cold front is just along the Texas Gulf coast from the
Texas/Louisiana border to near Corpus Christi. This front and the
squall line are expected to dissipate through this morning. A
surface trough is just west of the Florida west coast accompanied
by scattered showers. High pressure dominates the rest of the
basin, as a ridge axis extends westward across the northeast Gulf
from high pressure over the western Atlantic. Aside from the winds
over the northwestern Gulf, this ridge supports mainly moderate
easterly winds over the gulf basin this morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region supports moderate to fresh
easterly trades over the majority of the Caribbean basin this
morning. The only exceptions are locally strong winds along the
northwestern coast of Colombia, the Lee of Cuba, and the Windward
Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms cover the Greater
Antilles mainly east of 77W. A surface trough extends from the
Atlantic, across Puerto Rico, to near 14N66W. This trough is
helping to disrupt the trade wind flow over the northeastern
Caribbean. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers and thunderstorms are over Hispaniola
due to the surface trough to the east and abundant low level
moisture over the region. Expect conditions to improve early
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N50W to
27N72W. A 1014 mb low is centered near 24N65W with a surface
trough that extends from the low southward to Puerto Rico.
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 24N to 31N
between 56W and 69W, and within 240 nm east of the surface
trough. High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 30N42W dominates
the central and eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours the low
will drift westward with ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity
within several hundred nm of the system.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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