[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
835 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from Sierra Leone at 08N12W to 01N22W.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 01N22W to
02S30W to Brazil near 02S44W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is 3S-3N between 00W-02W, and from 03S-04N between
14W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is over south central Texas from 33N94W to
29N100W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm SE of the front, reaching the coast between Corpus
Christi and Houston. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high is centered over
Georgia near 33N82W. 10-20 kt E to SE surface return flow is over
the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds over the Straits of
Florida, and along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Radar
imagery shows isolated showers over S Florida and surrounding
waters moving W. In the upper levels, a trough is over the W Gulf
of Mexico with axis along 95W. Upper level moisture is over Texas
and the NW Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the
Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours for continued convection over
Texas, and the far NW Gulf. Expect little change over the
remainder of the Gulf for the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds just S of Cuba, and the strongest winds along the coast of
Colombia. A surface trough extends from 20N66W to Puerto Rico to
the E Caribbean near 14N66W producing scattered showers. Radar
imagery shows the showers reaching the Virgin Islands. Similar
showers are over all of the Leeward Islands, and Windward Islands.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over N Colombia, Panama, Costa
Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. In the upper
levels, zonal flow is over the Caribbean Sea. Upper level moisture
is over N Colombia and Venezuela. Strong subsidence is over the
remainder of the Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
E Caribbean to continue to have scattered showers due to the
surface trough.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the surface
trough. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N51W to
29N60W to E of the Bahamas near 27N72W. Scattered showers prevail
within 120 nm of the front. Further south, 1013 mb low is centered
near 25N65W. A surface trough extends S from the low to N of
Puerto Rico near 20N66W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
the trough. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
30N42W. Another surface trough is W of the Cape Verde Islands from
31N18W to 27N27W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is over
the E Atlantic near 30N68W. An upper level trough is N of 20N
between 20W-35W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the W Atlantic
front to remain quasi-stationary with continued scattered showers.
Also expect the W Atlantic trough to drift W towards the Bahamas
with continued scattered showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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