[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 10N21W. The ITCZ is along 04N19W 02N31W
03N42W 01N50W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 03N to 06N between 24W and 40W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 55W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N77W in the
Atlantic Ocean, across the Florida Keys, into the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the Atlantic
Ocean to the NW of the line that passes through 32N61W 29N70W
23N80W, and in the entire Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes
through 32N61W to 26N67W, across the SE Bahamas, through the
Windward Passage, to 17N78W just to the south of Jamaica.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm
on either side of the line that passes through 32N59W to 25N67W.

A surface ridge passes through SE Georgia, through the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco and Edinburg in the Lower Valley. from the
rest of TEXAS to FLORIDA: VFR.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level W and SW wind flow is moving through the NW corner of
the area. Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the rest of
the Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level
clouds, to the north of 13N60W, 13N73W, to the coast of Panama
along 80W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.13 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
island. A cold front passes through 22N70W just to the east of the
SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to 17N78W just to the
south of Jamaica. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the
coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for
visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo
Domingo: nearby rainshowers. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR.
Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR. earlier
rainshowers with thunder have ended for the moment.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
cover the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will be moving across the area
during the next 48 hours. A trough from 250 mb to 500 mb will be
to the west of Hispaniola, moving eastward. The trough either will
remain to the west and/or shift northward of the area. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that broad and weak anticyclonic
wind flow will cover the area during the first 36 hours or so of
the 48-hour forecast period. Expect N and NE wind flow for the
rest of the time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N24W, to 26N35W, to 19N37W,
and 09N42W. A stationary front is along 32N23W 30N24W 28N30W,
curving to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 24N35W. A
surface trough continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center to
20N37W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 25N to 30N between 28W to 36W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 22N to 30N between 27W and 37W.

A surface trough remains along 34N49W, through 32N50W, to 28N52W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 27N
northward between 50W and 53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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