[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
731 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 04N08W to
02N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 02S20W to a
1009 mb equatorial low near 00N30W to 02N42W to 00N49W. Isolated
showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of these
boundaries between 13W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

West-northwesterly middle to upper-level flow prevails over the
basin supporting mostly fair conditions associated with a surface
ridge. The ridge is anchored by a 1021 mb high centered across
southeastern Louisiana near 30N91W. To the southwest, a surface
trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 20N93W.
No significant convection is related to this feature at this time.
Scatterometer data depict light to gentle anticyclonic winds
across the basin. Expect through the next 24 hours for moderate
to fresh southeast winds to establish across the western Gulf
waters ahead of the next frontal boundary expected to stall across
the coastal plains by mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtle upper-level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over
the central Caribbean in support of a weakening cold front that
currently extends from eastern Cuba to 18N80W. Isolated showers
are noted along the front affecting mostly the eastern tip of
Cuba. This activity will move east this evening reaching the
Windward Passage. The remainder of the basin remains under
relatively tranquil conditions with the largest impact being fresh
to occasional strong northeast winds within close proximity to
the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to occasional fresh
trades prevail and will persist through the weekend and early next
week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Strong subsidence remains in place aloft providing overall stable
conditions and fair weather across the island. A cold front
currently extending over eastern Cuba, is expected to approach
the island during the next 24-48 hours. With this, scattered
showers are expected along the island during that period. By
Sunday, the front will stall and begin to gradually weaken,
becoming diffuse by Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface low is centered near 50N65W and extends its cold front
south reaching the discussion area near 31N62W to 24N68W to
20N75W. Scattered showers are observed along and east of the front
mainly north of 26N between 59W-66W. A small pre-frontal trough
was analyzed north of Hispaniola from 22N70W to 20N71W with
isolated showers. To the east, a stationary surface low is
centered near 25N34W. A stationary front extends from the low to
28N29W to 31N23W while a surface trough is from the low to 21N37W.
Isolated showers prevail near the low and front from 22N-30N
between 29W-37W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin. Expect for the cold front in the west Atlantic to
weaken and dissipate in 48 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net