[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 07N18W and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W,
to the Equator along 23W, and 03N38W. The ITCZ also is 03N33W
03N39W 02N45W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 04N
to 06N between Prime Meridian and 01W, from 03N to 05N between
05W and 08W, from 04N to 05N between 28W and 29W, and from 01N
southward between 48W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 55W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the
Atlantic Ocean, across the Florida Keys, into the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, in the Atlantic Ocean to the NW
of the line that passes through 32N61W 27N70W 23N79W, and in the
entire Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through 32N60W to
26N65W, across the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to
17N78W just to the south of Jamaica. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N59W to 28N64W 26N65W 22N72W.

A surface trough extends from 25N80W off the coast of SE Florida,
to 24N80.5W, to Cuba near 23N81W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from Cuba near 23N to 27N between Andros
Island in the Bahamas and 82W in the Straits of Florida.

A surface ridge passes through SE Georgia, through the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Edinburg and McAllen in the Lower Valley, and in
Laredo and Hebbronville, and in Robstown. from the rest of TEXAS
to LOUISIANA: VFR. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Pascagoula. FLORIDA: MVFR
in Destin.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level W and SW wind flow is moving through the NW corner of
the area. Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the rest of
the Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level
clouds, to the east of 70W, and to the NW of 14N70W 13N75W, to
the coast of Panama along 80W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.13 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
island. A cold front passes through 22N70W just to the east of the
SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to 17N78W just to the
south of Jamaica. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the
coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for
visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR.
La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.
Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
cover the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will be moving across the area
during the next 48 hours. A trough from 250 mb to 500 mb will be
to the west of Hispaniola, moving eastward. The trough either will
remain to the west and/or shift northward of the area. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that broad and weak anticyclonic
wind flow will cover the area during the first 36 hours or so of
the 48-hour forecast period. Expect N and NE wind flow for the
rest of the time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N22W, to a 26N36W cyclonic
circulation center, to 17N40W, and 09N42W. A stationary front
passes through 32N24W 30N24W 27N32W, curving to a 1015 mb low
pressure center that is near 25N33W. A surface trough continues
from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 20N37W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
21N to 27N between 30W to 37W.

A surface trough remains along 34N49W, to 28N48W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N northward
between 48W and 53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net