[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
06N16W to 05N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
continues from 05N21W to 03N27W to 03N38W to the South American
coast near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is located from
02N to 05N between 21W and 41W and also from 00N to 06N between
41W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 06/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from near Ft Myers
Florida at 26.5N82W to 23N88.5W to the Southeastern Bay of
Campeche near 18.5N92W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is occurring along and up to 90 nm E of front NE of
86W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are present along and up to
90 nm NW of the front W of 86W. To the lee of the front and W of
90W 20 to 30 kt N to NE winds predominate. E of 90W and W of the
front the winds become NW to N. The strongest winds are observed
along the western shore of the Bay of Campeche and along the NE
Gulf Coast from SE Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. 10-15 kt
S to SW return flow continues SE of the front. In the upper
levels, the axis of an upper-level trough is over the
Northeastern Gulf of Mexico near 83W. Upper-level diffluence east
of the trough axis is enhancing convection along the front to the
east of 86W. Expect in 24 hours for the front to have passed to
the SE of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds over the Leeward Islands, and the strongest winds along the
coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras. A surface trough
extends from the Gulf of Honduras at 16N87W to Northern Guatemala
at 18N90W to the Yucatan Peninsula at 21N90W. No significant
convection is associated with the trough. No significant
convection is present over the Caribbean, with generally fair
weather prevailing. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge
still resides over the Caribbean with an axis near 70W. Strong
subsidence associated with the ridge covers all of the Caribbean
Sea except for the portion south of Cuba. Expect convection to
develop later this afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula as the
front triggers convection. Partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail over the Caribbean during the next 24 hours.
The cold front approaching the NW Caribbean from the gulf of
Mexico will weaken as it approaches and is not expected to
generate significant convection or winds to advisory levels over
the NW Caribbean.


...HISPANIOLA...

Shower coverage over Haiti and the Dominican Republic remains
minimal. Very strong subsidence remaining in place aloft continues
to suppress thunderstorm activity. Expect only isolated trade wind
showers to advect over Hispaniola during the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from 32N77W to the Florida coast just S
of Cape Canaveral at 28N80.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is observed along and up to 120 nm east of the
front. The front will continue to head SE into the NW Atlantic
through Friday afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will occur along the front to the N of 26N as it
proceeds. Fresh to strong NW winds can be expected W of the
front. On Friday afternoon the front will curve SW from 32N67W to
the coast of Central Cuba at 22N78W. A 1024 mb high is centered
over the W Atlantic near 27N57W. A cold front stretches over the
E Atlantic from 32N28W to 27N32W to 24N37W, then continues as a
weakening cold front to 21N43W. Scattered showers are seen within
45 nm of the front. Expect the E Atlantic cold front to move
slowly E and reach from 31N27W to 21N41W in 24 hours. Showers
coverage will slowly decrease as the front weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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