[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
07N15W to 05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues
from 05N18W to 03N40W to the South American coast near 00N50W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is located within 120 nm
either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 06/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near
31N82W to 23N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm E of front N of 26N. The
remainder of the front is void of precipitation. 20-30 kt
northerly winds are W of front with strongest winds in the Bay of
Campeche. 10-15 kt southerly return flow is E of front. In the
upper levels, a trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along
90W. Upper level diffluence over N Florida is enhancing
convection. Expect in 24 hours for the front to extend from the
Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds over the Leeward Islands, and the strongest winds along the
coast of Colombia. A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula
from 23N89W to 16N91W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60
nm of the trough. Scattered showers are over N Colombia, and
Panama. Mostly fair weather is over the Caribbean Sea. In the
upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the Caribbean with axis
along 75W. Strong subsidence is over most of the Caribbean Sea.
Expect more convection to be over the Yucatan Peninsula due to
prefrontal activity. Also expect scattered showers to advect over
Hispaniola and Cuba over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently isolated showers are over Haiti. Very strong subsidence
is also aloft suppressing thunderstorm activity. Expect low level
scattered showers, embedded in the tradewind flow, to advect over
Hispaniola for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of N Florida
N of 28N and W of 79W. A 1023 mb high is centered over the W
Atlantic near 27N58W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from
31N31W to 23N40W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the
front. Expect a cold front to be over the W Atlantic in 24 hours
from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida with convection. Also
expect the E Atlantic cold front to move E and reach 31N26W in 24
hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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