[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
04N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 04N21W
to 04N35W to the South American coast near 00N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is located from 03N-07N between 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the southern portion of the basin from
26N82W to 21N89W. Isolated showers are expected along the front
affection the southeast Gulf waters. A surface ridge is building
in the wake of the front, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over
Texas near 31N97W. Scatterometer data depicts an area of moderate
to fresh northerly winds prevailing across the eastern half of
the basin and another area south of 21N and west of 92W, which
supports the gale-force winds occurring over the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail elsewhere.
Expect through the next 24 hours for the front to exit the basin.
Surface ridging will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers are developing ahead of a cold front that is
approaching the western Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico.
Stronger convection just developed along the front over the
Yucatan Peninsula and remains nearly-stationary. A surface trough
extends from 16N87W to 17N89W with isolated convection. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the cold front to enter the northwest
Caribbean enhancing convection/winds. The front will continue
moving east across the northern Caribbean through the next few
days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Strong subsidence remains in place aloft suppressing thunderstorm
activity across the island at this time. Expect isolated trade
wind showers to advect over Hispaniola during the next 24 hours. A
cold front will move across the island within the next 24-48 hours
enhancing convection/winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N77W to
27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and ahead
of the front mainly north of 27N. Isolated showers prevail south
of 27N. To the east, a stationary 1024 mb surface high is located
near 27N56W. Another cold front extends across the east Atlantic
analyzed from 31N29W to 22N40W. Expect for the front in the west
Atlantic to continue moving east enhancing winds/seas/convection.
Fresh to strong northerly winds can be expected west of the
front. The front to the east will continue moving east while
weakening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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