[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111116
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N18W to
03N29W to 08N50W to 08N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 07N-15N between 29W-39W...and from 05N-13N between 42W-
55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf this morning
between upper level ridging over the eastern waters and a broad
middle to upper level low centered over far western Texas...NW
Mexico...and southern New Mexico. Moisture and cloudiness
continues to stream northeastward across NE Mexico...the NW Gulf
waters and portions of eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi
River valley with embedded scattered to numerous showers and
isolated tstms occurring mainly W of 89W in the vicinity of a
stationary front analyzed from 25N85W to 25N90W to 23N96W to
19N93W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted N of the stationary
front...while fresh to strong N-NW winds are occurring W of the
north-south oriented portion of the stationary front across the
far SW Gulf waters off the coast of Mexico. Otherwise...the front
is expected to move very little through Friday night while a new
cold front is forecast to sink southward across the northern Gulf
Saturday...eventually merging with the old front during the
upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southerly upper level flow continues across much of the Caribbean
basin this morning on the western periphery of an upper level
anticyclone centered near 13N66W. Water vapor imagery indicates
relatively dry air aloft N of 14N W of 70W. Mostly fair skies
prevail across this area however low-level moisture convergence is
maximized across the SW Caribbean where scattered showers and
tstms are occurring S of 14N W of 76W. Farther east...as middle
to upper level moisture increase and upper level dynamics become
more favorable...a surface trough extends from 11N70W into a 1009
mb low near 15N69W through the Mona Passage and into the SW North
Atlc region near 19N68W. Isolated showers are possible within 90
nm either side of the boundary and in the vicinity of the low
center. Elsewhere to the E-SE...isolated showers and tstms are
occurring S of 16N between 57W-64W. Overall moderate to
occasional fresh trades are expected through Friday with little
change expected during the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
A few isolated showers are occurring across the island this
morning as W-SW flow aloft prevails between upper level ridging
over the Caribbean Sea and an upper level trough to the N over the
SW North Atlc region. The approach of a surface trough currently
analyzed across the Mona Passage will introduce higher
probabilities of precipitation and convection on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough extends across the SW North Atlc
extending from a vigorous upper level low centered near 34N62W SW
to a broad base near 22N67W. This feature is supporting a surface
cold front which extends from 32N58W SW to 25N70W then W to the
upper Florida Keys as a dissipating cold front near 25N81W. A
pre-frontal surface trough also extends from the cold front near
29N61W SW to near the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and tstms
are occurring N of 25N between 53W-60W. A stronger cold front is
expected to move into the NW waters late Saturday. Finally...the
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1031 mb high centered SE of the Azores near 36N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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