[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N17W along 7N19W to 6N23W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 5N35W 8N47W to 10N55W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 10N-12N between 48W-51W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within
90/120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 45W-53W and from 9N-
12N between 53W-59W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection
are from 5N-11N between 31W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A remnant stationary front remains in the Gulf this afternoon
extending from a 1015 mb low near 23N96W northeast to 25N90W
then dissipates to 24N84W, and south from the low to the coast
of Mexico near Coatzacoalcos. An upper ridge extends from the
Bay of Campeche to over the southeast CONUS near Tallahassee,
Florida. A surface ridge is building south over the the
southeast CONUS anchored by a 1026 mb high over Texas, a 1024 mb
high over the lower Mississippi Valley, and a second 1024 mb
high over northeast Mexico. The upper ridge is providing
difflunce aloft over the west Gulf to generate scattered to
numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 150
nm north of the front west of 89W and west of the low and front
to over Mexico. Isolated showers are possible over the south
Gulf and in the Straits of Florida, leaving the northeast Gulf
with clear skies this afternoon. This frontal system will move
little tonight. A new cold front will sink south over the north
Gulf Saturday night and Sunday then will merge with the existing
frontal boundary over the southwest Gulf later in the weekend.
Winds may gust to gale force near Veracruz Saturday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated upper ridge extends from the southeast Caribbean
along 14N67W to over Central America. At the surface is a
surface trough that extends from the south coast of the
Dominican Republic near 18N70W through a weak 1011 mb low near
15N71W to the Gulf of Venezuela near 12N71W. Scattered showers
are from 14N-18N between 67W-72W. The monsoon trough is south of
the Caribbean but is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 12N west of 77W to inland from Panama to
Nicaragua. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over
the southeast Caribbean south of 14N east of 63W into the
Tropical Atlantic including the Windward Islands, Trinidad, and
Tobago. The weather across the remainder of the Caribbean is
tranquil this afternoon. The low/surface trough in the east
Caribbean will move west and dissipate Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Low level clouds with scattered showers are developing across
island this afternoon. Lingering moisture coupled with the
surface trough along the south coast will continue to generate
showers and possible thunderstorms through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper trough covering the west Atlantic is supporting a
cold front that extends through 32N57W and continues along
26N62W to east of the Bahamas near 23N73W. A surface trough is
to the east extending from 31N57W along 24N61W to 19N68W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150/180
nm east of the surface trough north of 24N. A surface ridge is
building over the southeast CONUS and into the west Atlantic
west of the above frontal boundary and anchored inland over the
southeast CONUS. A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of
the Atlantic anchored by a 1032 mb high just southeast of the
Azores. The west Atlantic cold front will move into the central
Atlantic tonight. A stronger cold front will move into the west
Atlantic Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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