[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 07N12W
to 04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N17W to 04N29W to 07N40W to 08N50W to 09N57W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 05N-14N between 30W-38W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 06N-11N between 42W-46W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 49W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf this evening
between upper level ridging over the eastern waters and a broad
middle to upper level low centered over far western Texas...NW
Mexico...and southern New Mexico. Moisture and cloudiness
continues to stream NE across east-central Mexico...the western
Gulf waters and portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana
with embedded scattered to numerous showers and isolated tstms
occurring mainly W of 90W in the vicinity of a stationary front
analyzed from 26N86W to 25N95W to 19N94W. Fresh to strong NE winds
are noted N of the stationary front...while fresh to strong N-NW
winds are occurring W of the north-south oriented portion of the
stationary front across the far SW Gulf waters off the coast of
Mexico. Otherwise...the front is expected to move very little
through Friday night while a new cold front is forecast to sink
southward across the northern Gulf Saturday...eventually merging
with the old front during the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southerly upper level flow continues across much of the Caribbean
basin this evening on the western periphery of an upper level
anticyclone centered near 13N60W. Water vapor imagery indicates
relatively dry air aloft N of 14N W of 69W. Mostly fair skies
prevail across this area however a surface trough is analyzed from
across the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W SE to 15N82W then S-SE to
11N81W. A few isolated showers are noted within 90 nm either side
of the boundary. South of this surface trough...the Monsoon Trough
axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N73W to 11N77W to
western Panama and southern Costa Rica...then into the East
Pacific region. Scattered showers and isolated strong tstms are
occurring S of 11N between 76W-82W...including inland portions of
Panama. Farther east...as middle to upper level moisture increase
and upper level dynamics become more favorable...a surface trough
extends from 11N67W into a 1011 mb low near 15N68W to N of Puerto
Rico near 20N66W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring within
90 nm of the low center. Elsewhere to the E-SE...isolated showers
and tstms are occurring S of 16N between 58W-64W. Finally...
overall moderate to occasional fresh trades are expected through
the overnight hours into Friday with little change expected
through the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
A few isolated showers are occurring across the island this
evening as W-SW flow aloft prevails between upper level ridging
over the Caribbean Sea and an upper level trough to the N over the
SW North Atlc region. The approach of a surface trough currently
analyzed along 67W will introduce higher probabilities of
precipitation and convection on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough extends across the SW North Atlc
extending from a vigorous upper level low centered near 35N64W
SW through 31N65W to 25N70W. This feature is supporting a surface
cold front which extends from 32N62W SW to 26N70W then W to the
Florida peninsula near 26N80W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring E of the front within 150 nm either side of a
line from 25N63W to 32N56W. A stronger cold front is expected to move
into the NW waters late Saturday. Finally...the remainder of the
basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a
1031 mb high centered SE of the Azores near 36N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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