[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 08N22W 09N31W
09N44W and 06N55W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 12N southward between 10W and
50W, and from 14N southward between 50W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the central sections of
the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 85W westward. Rainshowers are possible also from85w
eastward, as low level clouds move from the Atlantic Ocean, across
Florida, into the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the low pressure extends
from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico northwestward to the NE
coast of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
23N southward from 90W westward.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, to a 1020
mb high pressure center that is near 23N100W, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of
southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KHQI and KEHC.

MVFR: KBQX and KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Hebbronville. light rain at the NAS in Corpus
Christi. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough 66W/67W. This trough has been in this area
more or less during the last few days, as it was being associated
earlier with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
15N to 21N between 66W and 74W in the Windward Passage.

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea toward the Greater Antilles. Upper level SW wind
flow is moving from Central America, from Guatemala southward,
and from Colombia and Venezuela, into the central sections of the
Caribbean Sea. The wind flow eventually becomes more westerly,
and it merges with an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow that
is associated with the current Caribbean Sea trough.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
06/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.30 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area, in relation
to the Caribbean Sea trough. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
15N to 21N between 66W and 74W in the Windward Passage.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceilings; towering cumulus clouds, at 05/2200 UTC. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR; few cumulonimbus clouds, at
06/0000 UTC. Santo Domingo and La Romana: thunder and rain. Punta
Cana: earlier thunder and rain have ended. VFR/no ceilings; few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: thunder and rain. Puerto Plata:
earlier thunder and rain have ended. VFR;scattered cumulonimbus
clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
become W wind flow, and eventually SW wind flow for the rest of
day one. Day two will consist of entirely SW wind flow. A trough
will be to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500
mb shows that day one will consist of SW and W wind flow. Day two
will consist of only SW wind flow. A trough will be to the west
of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S
-to-SW wind flow, with a ridge, will move across the area during
day one. Expect SW wind flow, in a ridge, for day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough is in the western Atlantic
Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward from 60W westward. The trough supports the cold
front that passes through 32N63W to 29N70W, to the northern
Bahamas, through the Upper Florida Keys, to 24N86W in the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough is along 30N65W, to a 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 28N66W, to 26N68W, just to the east
of the cold front. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 60 nm on either side of 22N66W
27N62W 32N59W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 30N northward
between 32W and 45W. This is the area of cyclonic wind flow that
used to be associated with the gale-force winds from 24 hours ago
to 48 hours ago. A cold front passes through 32N35W to 25N37W, and
stationary from 25N37W to 20N42W. Convective precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are from 20N northward between 30W and 40W.

Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 10N northward between 30W and 60W. High level moisture is
streaming northeastward within 250 nm on either side of 10N55W
19N53W 21N46W 20N36W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa
and 30W. The trough is along 33N18W 27N20W 02N28W. The trough
cuts across the area of the ITCZ. A surface trough extends from a
1011 mb low pressure center that is near 30N18W, to 26N19W and
24N21W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate withing 240 nm
of the coast of Africa from 22N northward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
between the Atlantic Ocean cold front/stationary front and the
western Atlantic Ocean cold front. A 1020 mb high pressure center
is near 27N51W. A surface ridge is along 13N34W 26N31W beyond
32N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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