[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 8N19W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 8N28W 7N39W 8N46W to 7N53W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-11N
between 32W-45W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
from 3N-8N between 20W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The broad upper trough in the west Atlantic is supporting a cold
front that extends across Florida near Miami then south of
Naples into the Gulf of Mexico to 25N85W where it dissipates to
26N93W. Isolated low level showers are within 90 nm south of the
front east of 82W including the Florida Keys. A shortwave upper
trough is moving through the northwest Gulf from southwest
Louisiana to Tuxpan Mexico and is generating scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms from 25N-28N west of 94W to
the coast of Texas. A surface trough is in the southwest Gulf
extending along 93W south of 23N to the coast of Mexico. A
surface ridge is building south over the Gulf in the wake of the
frontal passage. The cold front will dissipate Sunday. The next
cold front will move into the Gulf on Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low amplitude ridge covers the west Caribbean with the axis
along 84W while a low amplitude trough covers the east Caribbean
with the axis along 65W. At the surface is a surface trough that
extends from 20N73W across the Windward Passage/west Haiti into
the Caribbean to off Colombia near 13N73W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are north of 16N between 67W-71W, south
of 13N into the Gulf of Venezuela, inland and within 60 nm along
the coast of Colombia, and east of 67W to over the Lesser
Antilles. The surface trough will persist through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The surface trough over west Haiti and the Windward Passage is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
the island this evening. This activity will continue through
Monday when the surface trough is expected to dissipate.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper trough covers the west Atlantic supporting a cold
front that extends across Bermuda along 28N73W, over the
northern Bahama Islands then across Florida near Miami into the
Gulf of Mexico. Isolated low level showers are possible within
90 nm southeast of the front. Also embedded within the upper
trough is a weak 1012 mb low near 27N68W with a surface trough
extending from 30N66W through the low to 26N69W. An upper ridge
to the east of the upper trough is providing difflunce aloft to
generate clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the Greater Antilles to 31N between 61W-69W.
A surface ridge covers the central Atlantic anchored by a 1019
mb high near 27N50W. An upper trough is over the north-central
Atlantic supporting a cold front that enters the east/central
Atlantic near 32N36W and extends to 25N38W where it becomes
stationary to 20N42W, then becomes a surface trough to 18N48W.
scattered showers are within 120 nm east of the cold front. A
deep layered low is over the Canary Islands with an upper trough
extending to 10N east of 30W supporting a 1010 mb low near
30N17W with a surface trough extending south through the Canary
Islands to 24N21W. A warm front extends from the low to beyond
the Madeira Islands. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 26N-30N east of 16W to the coast of
Africa. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N58W
26N65W to the southern Bahamas Sunday afternoon, then become
stationary from near 32N55W 21N65W to Hispaniola Monday night.
The next cold front will move into the west Atlantic Monday and
extend from 32N65W to 27N73W Monday afternoon.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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