[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ begins near 07N13W and extends to 07N36W to 07N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of the boundary
between 11W- 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic supporting
a dry cold front analyzed from 27N93W to 26N82W. Moderate north
winds prevail north of the front while moderate to fresh
northeasterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data south of
the front. To the southwest, a surface trough extends across the
Bay of Campeche from 23N92W to 20N94W. Isolated showers are
observed along this boundary. A surface ridge prevails across the
eastern portion of Mexico anchored by a 1024 mb high centered
near 23N99W. Expect through the next 24 hours for the surface
ridge to continue building across the basin in the wake of the
front. The front will continue moving south across the eastern
Gulf waters then entering the western Caribbean while weakening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends across the western Caribbean with fair
weather. To the east, a surface trough extends from 20N73W to
13N75W. Isolated showers are observed along this boundary
affecting Haiti and adjacent waters. A cluster of moderate
convection developed south of 11N between 75W-79W. A diffluent
flow aloft is supporting cloudiness and isolated moderate
convection east of 66W affecting Puerto Rico and the Lesser
Antilles. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across
the west and central Caribbean while moderate to fresh winds are east
of 67W. A dry cold front will enter the western Caribbean within
the next 24 hours enhancing winds/seas. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

The surface trough extends across the western portion of the island
enhancing isolated convection. The trough will continue enhancing
convection through the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic supporting
a dry cold front that extends from 27N79W to 31N69W. To the east,
a 1012 mb surface low is centered near 27N69W with a trough
extending from the low to 30N66W. Scattered showers are observed
east of these features between 60W-67W. A 1020 mb surface high is
centered near 27N53W. A diffluent flow aloft is enhancing
scattered moderate convection south of this high mainly south of
21N between 50W-60W affecting the Lesser Antilles. Another dry cold
front front was analyzed from 31N37W to 20N42W, with a surface
trough from 20N42W to 17N45W. A 1013 mb low is centered near
32N17W with surface trough extending southwest across the Canary
Islands enhancing isolated convection. Expect for the cold front
in the west Atlantic to continue moving east while weakening.
Strong high pressure will build behind the front. The central
Atlantic front will stall tonight then dissipate by Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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