[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near
10N14W to 09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 09N16W to 07N25W
10N37W 08N42W and 04N51W. Convective precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong within 30 nm on either side of 08N46W 10N48W.
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 07N between
45W and 47W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
elsewhere from 14N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the central sections of
the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 86W westward. Rainshowers are possible also from
856W eastward, as low level clouds move from the Atlantic Ocean,
across Florida, into the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the low pressure extends
from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico northwestward to the NE
coast of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
23N southward from 90W westward.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, to a
1022 mb high pressure center that is near 22N98W, to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of
southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow also covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 25N northward.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KATP.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Hebbronville. light rain in Alice. rain in Port
Lavaca. light rain in Jasper. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR/no
ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 66W/67W. This trough has been in
this area more or less during the last few days, as it was being
associated earlier with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea
trough. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 14N to
16N between 71W and 72W in the Caribbean Sea, and from 20N to
22N between 64W and 67W in the Atlantic Ocean. isolated moderate
to locally strong from 23N between 60W and 75W in the
Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean.

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea toward the Greater Antilles. Upper level SW wind
flow is moving from Central America, from Guatemala southward,
and from Colombia and Venezuela, into the central sections of the
Caribbean Sea. The wind flow eventually becomes more westerly,
and it merges with an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow that
is associated with the current Caribbean Sea trough.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
06/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.30 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area, in relation
to the Caribbean Sea trough. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong from 14N to 16N between 71W and 72W in the Caribbean Sea,
and from 20N to 22N between 64W and 67W in the Atlantic Ocean.
isolated moderate to locally strong from 23N between 60W and 75W
in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceilings. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: from Santo Domingo to La
Romana to Punta Cana: thunder and rain. Santiago and Puerto
Plata: VFR; scattered cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
become W wind flow, and eventually SW wind flow for the rest of
day one. Day two will consist of entirely SW wind flow. A trough
will be to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500
mb shows that day one will consist of SW and W wind flow. Day two
will consist of only SW wind flow. A trough will be to the west
of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S
-to-SW wind flow, with a ridge, will move across the area during
day one. Expect SW wind flow, in a ridge, for day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough is in the western Atlantic
Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward from 60W westward. The trough supports the cold
front that passes through 32N62W to 28N70W, across the northern
part of Andros Island in the Bahamas, to 24N82W, just to the
south of the Florida Keys. A surface trough continues from
24N86W to 24N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is
along 30N64W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near
29N66W, to 26N68W, just to the east of the cold front.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 75 nm on either side of 23N62W 32N58W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 30N
northward between 30W and 45W. This is the area of cyclonic wind
flow that used to be associated with the gale-force winds from
24 hours ago to 48 hours ago. A cold front passes through 32N34W
to 24N36W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate from 24N to 30N between 33W and 36W. broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are
elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 50W.

Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 10N northward between 30W and 60W. High level moisture is
streaming northeastward within 250 nm on either side of 10N55W
18N54W 21N46W 20N36W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa
and 30W. The trough cuts across the area of the ITCZ. A surface
trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near
29N18W, to 26N19W and 24N21W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate covers the area from 27N northward from 25W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
between the Atlantic Ocean cold front/stationary front and the
western Atlantic Ocean cold front. One 1020 mb high pressure
center is near 27N50W. A second 1020 mb high pressure center is
near 29N42W. A surface ridge is along 15N33W 27N31W beyond
32N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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