[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning...Winds are forecast to persist to
near gale to gale force over the next 24 hours near the African
coast for the areas of Agadir and the north portion of Tarfaya.
Near gale conditions are expected for the Canarias. Please see
the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the
following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large,
Metarea II, or on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-
meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 8N13W to 5N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 5N29W where a surface trough disrupts the flow. The
ITCZ resumes west of the trough near 5N33W and continues along
3N42W to inland over South America near 1N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 NM along
the coast of the Ivory Coast of Africa between 5W to the border
of Liberia and within 90 NM south of the Monsoon Trough between
12W-15W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 75
NM north of the Monsoon Trough between 14W-17W and within 120 NM
north of the ITCZ between 32W-48W. Surface trough extends from
8N29W to 4N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A shortwave upper trough extends from the lower Mississippi
Valley across the Gulf of Mexico to the west Cuba. The upper
ridge is to the east over the west Atlantic providing diffluence
aloft to generate clusters of scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 25N to inland over the north Gulf
coast east of 91W to over the Florida peninsula. A surface ridge
covers the east Gulf anchored by a 1026 mb high off the North
Carolina coast. The surface ridge will persist through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper ridge extends from over Central America across the
northwest Caribbean and central Cuba into the west Atlantic. A
weak shortwave upper trough extends from near 22N67W across
Hispaniola to the central Caribbean near 15N76W. A surface
trough extends from the north coast of Panama to 10N80W
northwest over Nicaragua near 12N84W and over Honduras to near
15N84W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
are from 10N-15N west of 82W to inland over Nicaragua. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 11N to the coast of
Panama between 78W-82W. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic
will maintain fresh to strong trade winds primarily over the
Gulf of Honduras and the central Caribbean through Thursday.

HISPANIOLA...

Lingering moisture and possible isolated showers remain across
the south portion of the island this morning. The weak shortwave
upper trough that extends over the island will shift eastward
and extend across the Virgin Islands by later this afternoon.
Moisture will remain limited through Thursday but afternoon
showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to the strong
easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge extends from the northwest Caribbean across
central Cuba into the west Atlantic to beyond 32N74W with a
surface ridge extending from a 1026 mb high off the North
Carolina coast into the east Gulf of Mexico. A large upper low
is over the Canadian Maritimes supporting a weakening cold front
that extends to 31N64W. A surface trough extends from 30N65W to
26N75W. Isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
north of 26N between 61W-72W. The remainder of the Atlantic is
dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored well north of the
discussion area. The surface trough will lift northwest and
dissipate today. A second cold front will move across the
northern waters Thursday will pass across the northern waters as
it weakens.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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