[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale...Winds are forecast to reach gale force over
the next over the eastern portion of the area of Agadir. Within
the next 24 hours, near gale to gale force winds are still
expected over Agadir, but also spreading over the areas of
Tarfaya and Canarias. Please refer to the Meteo-France high seas
forecast that is listed under the following links: Marine,
Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N19W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection prevails
along and within 100 NM to the north of both boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The combination of a shortwave upper-level trough with low-level
convergence is supporting an area of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the northeast Gulf waters
mainly north of 25n and east 89w. At the surface, a trough was
analyzed from 26N89W to 30N86W. The remainder of the basin is
convection-free at this time. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate northerly flow across the western half of the basin
while a gentle to moderate southerly flow prevails across the
eastern half. Expect during the next 24 hours for the convection
across the ne Gulf to move east towards the Florida peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface ridge that prevails across the tropical Atlantic
extends southwest reaching the Caribbean waters. A tight pressure
gradient is generated by the combination of this ridge with
lower pressures across the northern portion of South America.
With this, strong to near gale force winds will pulse each
morning across the south-central Caribbean waters mainly south
of 17N between 70W-78W during the next 48 hours. The proximity
of the monsoon trough over Panama is inducing scattered moderate
to strong convection across the Caribbean waters south of 12N
between 78W-84W. Low-level moisture transported by the moderate
to fresh trades is generating isolated showers across the
remainder of the basin. Expect for a similar weather pattern to
prevail during the next 24 hours.

HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect for
isolated showers to develop in the afternoon hours due to the
trades combined with daytime heating and orographic lifting.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level shortwave trough is moving east across the far
east Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula supporting
cloudiness and isolated convection across the w Atlantic mainly
west of 75W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N73W
to 30N64W with no convection. A broad area of high pressure
prevails across the remainder of the basin centered by a 1034 mb
surface high near 36N34W. During the next 24 hours, expect for
the shortwave trough to continue moving east reaching the w
Atlantic and enhancing convection. High pressure will prevail
elsewhere.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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