[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning...Winds are forecast to persist to
near gale to gale force over the next 24 hours near the African
coast for the areas of Agadir and the north portion of Tarfaya.
Near gale conditions are expected for the Canarias. Please see
the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the
following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large,
Metarea II, or on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-
meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 9N13W to 6N17W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 5N29W where a surface trough disrupts the flow. The
ITCZ resumes west of the trough near 4N33W and continues along
2N41W to inland over South America near 1N49W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 1N-5N
east of 7W across the Prime Meridian, north of 4N to inland over
Africa between 10W-14W, and from 3N-6N between 36W-41W. Surface
trough extends from 8N28W to 3N31W with clusters of scattered
moderate convection from 4N-7N between 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A shortwave upper trough extends from the middle/lower
Mississippi Valley across the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan
Peninsula. An upper ridge is to the east extending from the
northwest Caribbean across west Cuba and the Florida peninsula
to over the SE CONUS providing diffluence aloft to generate
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from
26N to inland over the north Gulf coast between 86W-94W.
Afternoon showers/thunderstorms that have developed over Cuba
have moved offshore into the Straits of Florida south of 25N
east of 85W. A surface trough extends along the Texas coast from
the Louisiana boundary to just south of Corpus Christi. A
surface ridge covers the east Gulf anchored by a 1026 mb high
off the North Carolina coast and a weaker 1024 mb high over
Ohio. The surface ridge will persist through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge extends from over Central America across the
northwest Caribbean and Cuba into the east Gulf of Mexico and
west Atlantic. A weak shortwave upper trough extends from the
Turks and Caicos across the Windward Passage to near 14N77W. a
surface trough is analyzed from Colombia near 9N75W along the
north coast of Panama to 10N81W then over Nicaragua near 12N84W
and over Honduras to near 15N85W. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 NM on both side of the
trough west of 81W to inland over Nicaragua and Honduras.
Afternoon showers/thunderstorms that developed inland over Cuba
have moved north into the Straits of Florida leaving scattered
showers across the island east of 81W. Surface ridge over the
west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the
Caribbean through Thursday.

HISPANIOLA...

Lingering isolated showers remain across the island west of 70W
tonight. The weak shortwave upper trough that extends from the
Turks and Caicos across the Windward Passage will shift eastward
and extend across the Virgin Islands by Tuesday afternoon.
Moisture will be limited through Thursday but afternoon showers
and thunderstorms could still develop due to the strong easterly
trade winds coupled with daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large upper low is over the Canadian Maritimes supporting a
weakening cold front that extends into the west Atlantic near
32N62W along 30N65w to 29N70W where it dissipates to 29N75W. A
surface trough extends from 28N66W along 27N70W to 25N73W.
Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north
of 25N between 60W-73W. The remainder of the Atlantic is
dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored well north of the
discussion area. The cold front will continue moving east into
the central Atlantic by Tuesday. The surface trough will lift
northwest and dissipate tonight. A second cold front will move
across the northern waters Wednesday through Thursday night.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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