[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162301
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning on Meteo-France outlook...Winds are
forecast to near gale to gale between 17/1200 UTC and 18/1200
UTC along the African coast over the area of Agadir. Please see
the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the
following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large,
Metarea II, or on the website:
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and enters the
east Tropical Atlantic near 07N12W to 05N17W.  The intertropical
convergence zone axis extends from 05N17W to 06N24W where a
surface trough is embedded. The surface trough extends from
09N24W to 02N26W. The intertropical convergence zone axis then
resumes from 06N27W to 03N40W to near the coast of South America
at 02N51W. No significant convection is present near these
features.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep and sharp upper level trough is moving through the United
States Great Plains states, extending southward to across
eastern Texas and now into the west central Gulf of Mexico near
21N96W. Plentiful moisture is moving out ahead of the trough
with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms possible to
the north of 25N between 89W and 95W, with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible from 21N to 25N between 90W and
94W. The upper trough will continue to shift eastward tonight
and Tuesday with associated convection out ahead of it also
moving eastward. A stationary front is lingering at the surface
from northern Florida near 29N83W to southeast Louisiana near
30N90W. This front is forecast to dissipate tonight. A weak
diurnal trough is forecast to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula
each evening, drifting westward into the southwest Gulf at
night. Otherwise, high pressure ridging extending northeast of
the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh southeast
return flow across the basin through at least the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical jet is helping to advect moisture off to the
northeast-east from the Dominican Republic to across Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Mainly zonal westerly flow aloft
dominates the basin. The basin is generally void of any
significant surface features, except in the western Caribbean
where a trough extends from 1008 MB low pressure over northwest
Colombia near 08.5N76W to along the northern coast of Panama at
10N80W and across the remainder of Central America to eastern
Honduras at 15.5N85W. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nautical miles either side
of the trough, with very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning
possible across these areas. Otherwise, the pressure gradient
between the low over northwest Colombia and high pressure
ridging located to the north-northeast of the basin will
continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere.

HISPANIOLA...

A middle to upper level trough is moving across the island.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the
trough with the assistance of daytime heating, but what little
activity that there is should diminish shortly after sunset.
Isolated convection will be possible again on Tuesday, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from east of Bermuda near 32N63W to
29.5N74W, where it then continues as a weak stationary front to
just north of Daytona Beach, Florida at 29N81W. A surface trough
is located to the southeast of the front reaching from near
28N70W to the southeast Bahamas at 22N76W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are located to the north of 24N east of
the boundaries to 60W. The front will continue to weaken
tonight, dissipating tuesday into tuesday night as high pressure
ridging located to the east rebuilds in. Model guidance
indicates a weak surface low pressure area forming to the east
of the Georgia/South Carolina border near 31N79.5W late Tuesday
night, which will move to the northeast through Wednesday. This
low will likely drag a weak cold front to its south into the
waters to the north of 28N through the middle of the week.
Otherwise, the eastern Atlantic high pressure will dominate the
remainder of the Atlantic, with mainly moderate to locally fresh
trade winds expected across the waters to the east of 60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
JLewitsky
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