[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW
THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 14/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...
NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN...AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 04N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N22W TO 03N36W
AND 02N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 01N
TO 08N BETWEEN 08N AND 16N. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO
03N BETWEEN 01W AND 09W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W...AND FROM 02N TO 04N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
25N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N91W
25N93W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD. ONE
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM 20N TO 25N. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 21N
TO 23N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KEIR.

IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF AND KMDJ.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGUL AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...LIFR IN EDINBURG.
LIFR IN ALICE...KINGSVILLE...ROBSTOWN...IN VICTORIA...AND IN BAY
CITY. MVFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. LOUISIANA...IFR IN NEW
IBERIA. MVFR IN GALLIANO...IN SLIDELL...AND IN AREAS THAT ARE
AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...
MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...IFR IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN
AREA. FLORIDA...IFR IN PARTS OF THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA.
LIGHT RAIN IN MILTON. MVFR IN PANAMA CITY. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE.
IFR AT THE MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE. MVFR IN SARASOTA.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 25N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
14N76W...AND BEYOND CENTRAL PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
75W/76W FROM 23N TO 28N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALSO FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.21 IN
GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 9000
FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO
PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO...WITH THE EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE THAT IS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. DAY TWO WILL
CONSIST OF SOME SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND PURELY ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N50W 29N55W 28N60W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
MOROCCO NEAR 32N08W...TO 20N28W 14N33W AND 08N35W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS
THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N50W 28N60W SURFACE TROUGH.
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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