[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW
THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 14/0000 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE
THREAT OF NORTHEAST NEAR GALE TO LOCALLY GALE IN...AGADIR...TARFAYA...
AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 07N18W AND 05N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
05N22W TO 04N35W 03N42W AND 03N49W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
51W/52W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 07N AND 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
25N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...HAS DEVELOPED IN AN
OVERALL BIGGER AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
FROM 25N NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 26N91W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KGHB AND KEIR.

IFR CONDITIONS...KMZG AND KXIH.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KHHV...KGUL...KVAF...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN PORT ISABEL. IFR IN ALICE. MVFR IN BAY CITY.
LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PARTS OF THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA.
ELSEWHERE IN IOWA...AND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... VFR/NO
CEILINGS. MVFR IN BROOKSVILLE AND AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 25N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
13N76W...AND BEYOND CENTRAL PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALSO FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER
SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AFTER EARLIER ALREADY-DISSIPATED
PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.21 IN
GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 26000
FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. LA ROMANA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. PUNTA CANA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT
7000 FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD.
EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO...WITH THE
EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
CONSIST OF SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF SOME
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND PURELY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ON TOP
OF HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO 17N37W...AND 08N33W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS
THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 30N33W.

ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N50W 22N55W 19N57W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N73W 26N75W 23N76W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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