[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE AREAS OFFSHORE OF NW AFRICA INCLUDING AGADIR...TARFAYA...
AND CANARIAS ARE UNDER THE THREAT OF GALE CONDITIONS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/ PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 05N30W THEN RESUMES
FROM 05N36W TO 03N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 07W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS FROM 08N30W TO 02N34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 51W-53W
WHERE ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N50W TO 06N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE N
CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 86W-93W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW
GULF FROM 25N93W TO 20N94W. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO
SW GULF TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. OTHER
THAN A BRIEF WIND-SHIFT...LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED. OVERALL...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
BENIGN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD
WHILE ENCOUNTERING A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING N-NE OF
THE BASIN BUILDS IN...COMBINED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYERED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
ISLAND HELPING TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NE-E
BUILDS IN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...STALLING ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SAME AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF
WIND-SHIFT...LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE FRONTS AND TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARILY
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY
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