[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A NEAR GALE TO GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR
AND CANARIAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-
FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING
LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA
II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 4N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N32W 5N43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 13W-19W AND FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 19W-22W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 13W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-35W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CONUS N OF 31N SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 13/1500 UTC ACROSS
PENSACOLA FLORIDA THEN OVER SE LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W BEFORE
GOING INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF GALVESTON. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF FROM JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
TO NEAR 20N95W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30/45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 92W FROM 22N ACROSS THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 18N OVER S MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
A SMALL UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N84W TO 26N88W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A
1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE N GULF TODAY WITH A SECOND FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE N GULF LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH FRONTS WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN ALONG THE N GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 74W
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10.5N W OF
80.5W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BECOME STRONGER AND BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE
COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A SURFACE TROUGH THAT DISSIPATED EARLIER
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 70W-75W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 37W-63W SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 31N47W THEN CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N50W TO 29N54W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 58W-62W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC S OF 28N
EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N31W S OF THE
ABOVE TROUGH ACROSS TO THE W ATLC AND INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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