[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N15W TO
04N23W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N24W TO 01N24W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 04N25W TO 04N36W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N36W TO 01N37W. THE ITCZ RESUMES AGAIN
FROM 04N39W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
S LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE OTHER SE
GULF STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE SE FLOW OVER THE GULF
WITH ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SE GULF
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N67W TO THE
MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO N
OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-74W. FURTHER S...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
72W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH SW FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD E OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EASTERLIES.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W WITH
FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER E...A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N67W. A
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 31N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONTS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 34N48W ALSO WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO AT 29N10W TO THE E ATLANTIC AT 25N20W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 38N16W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC FRONT TO
DISSIPATE TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND THEN RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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