[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND THEN
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W...CONTINUING TO 06N14W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N14W AND THEN EXTENDS TO 04N21W...IT
CONTINUES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 04N24W TO 04N34W...THEN W
OF A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 04N38W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W AND
WITHIN 260 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE SW N
ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO 94W IN THE GULF. LOW PRES
ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO EXTEND S ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF...THUS GENERATING A TIGHTER
GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND N OF 25W W OF 90W. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW
PREVAILS IN THE EASTERN GULF. MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE EPAC
WATERS BY SW FLOW CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WHILE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE IN
PLACE THROUGH WED...LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE FAR EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A STRONG SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN HAITI BETWEEN 71W AND
78W. A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FRESH TO STRONG
NE FLOW FUNNELS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DUE TO HIGH PRES IN
THE SW N ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY LEAVING IN PLACE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TUE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE FAR EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A STRONG SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN HAITI BETWEEN 71W AND
78W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY LEAVING IN
PLACE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S
TO A BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N68W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N. THE REMAINDER BASIN W AND E OF THE FRONT IS
DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE FAR NE ATLC FROM 30N08W TO 25N21W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A
SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W-
NW AROUND THE SW N ATLC RIDGE THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

NR
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