[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 07N15W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N15W TO
05N23W...04N25W TO 04N37W...04N39W...TO 01N50W ALONG THE COAST
NEAR BRAZIL. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 09N
SOUTHWARD. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24W/25W...CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
05N17W 05N26W 07N38W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALONG THE ITCZ ALSO.

PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AREA THAT IS NEAR 30N74W...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK..KGUL...
AND KVQT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN WESLACO AND MCALLEN...AT THE NAVAL STATION IN
CORPUS CHRISTI. MVFR IN VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA...AND PALACIOS...
IN BAY CITY AND IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...IN THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...IN GALVESTON...AND IN BEAUMONT...AND IN
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PARTS OF THE LAKE
CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. FROM THE REST OF LOUISIANA TO
FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 59W WESTWARD. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
30N62W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COLOMBIA...FROM 05N TO 10N/11N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF HAITI...
AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF HISPANIOLA.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W...TO A 1018 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N64W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR
18N68W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N62W 29N59W BEYOND 32N57W.

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT
TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN
GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 10/0000
UTC...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE
IS AT 6000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...
THUNDER AND FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AT 10/0000 UTC. SANTO
DOMINGO...THUNDER AND FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. LA ROMANA AND
PUNTA CANA...VFR WITH FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...THUNDER AND FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.
PUERTO PLATA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT
1600 FEET...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE CUTTING ACROSS HAITI FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH WILL COVER THE DAY FOR DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO NEAR 30N09W...TO THE COASTAL
WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
27N20W...AND 28N28W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N28W
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 32N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM
20N NORTHWARD FROM 43W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 21N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N53W...TO
09N59W...NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N47W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N66W TO 28N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO
A 1019 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N84W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT
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