[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND
TARFAYA UNTIL 01/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE
OF NORTHERLY GALE IN AGADIR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO
05N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N16W TO 00N27W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
00N-04N BETWEEN 17W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
NEAR 10N96W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. RIDGE AXIS WAS ALONG 88W WITH BROAD SW FLOW
NOTED W OF THE AXIS OVER THE GULF. THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF.
A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ADVANCING TOWARD THE GULF...PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A COLD
FRONT INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH CONTINUES MOVING SE AND AS
OF 2100 UTC IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...HOWEVER BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER THE NW GULF. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SE TO S WINDS HAVE
DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE GULF FROM THE NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPERIENCED EARLIER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRI NIGHT WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BY LATE
FRI NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT4 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
NEAR 10N96W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN NW OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 11N70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT
TRADEWINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN...WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES
PREVAILED OVER THE BASIN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS
NOTED OVER THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ON THE
NORTH COAST OF HAITI. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT THE STORMS
WERE MAINTAINING THEIR INTENSITY FOR NOW. THESE STORM WERE ABLE
TO DEVELOP IN PART TO A WEAKER THAN NORMAL TRADE WIND INVERSION
AS NOTED ON THE 12 UTC SANTO DOMINGO RAOB. ADDITIONALLY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE HIGHER THAN OBSERVED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AROUND 1.50 INCHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WAS RATHER AMPLIFIED
WITH A MID-TO UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 33N68W WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM 26N63W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM A BROAD
RIDGE COVERED THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W AND 55W WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING 1034 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N54W. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N41W TO 28N53W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TROUGH 27N60W TO 27N64W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN
55W AND 67W. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 33N68W
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
W OF 60W. A PAIR OF 1028 MB SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N22W AND 31N27W DOMINATED THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE BASIN. A FAIRLY DEEP 998 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED INLAND
OVER W ALGERIA NEAR 28N07W. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE ATLANTIC IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB
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