[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND
TARFAYA UNTIL 01/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE
OF NORTHERLY GALE IN AGADIR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 07N11W TO
03N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N17W TO 00N27W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
00N-05N BETWEEN 15W-20W...FROM 02N-02S BETWEEN 21W-25W...AND
FROM 1N-4S BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS PRESENTLY MOSTLY VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. THE GULF HAS 10-25 KT SOUTHERLY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURN FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVER N TEXAS ALONG
97W. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO S TEXAS S OF CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR
27N97W. CONVECTION WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
NW GULF. 15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 15-
20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HAITI IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE PREVALENT NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N58W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N46W TO
28N53W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 27N60W TO 27N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N22W. A 1005 MB LOW IS
CENTERED INLAND OVER W ALGERIA NEAR 28N06W. A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO PRODUCING A
GALE. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 65W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE AXIS IS ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN
55W-65W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO
31N31W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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