[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN MADEIRA...
CANARIAS...AGADIR...AND...TARFAYA...UNTIL 01/0000 UTC. THE
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME
PERIOD CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY GALE IN AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 05N09W TO 02N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N21W TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W AND 45W...
AND TO 02S52W IN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N IN SIERRA LEONE BETWEEN 09W AND 13W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 10N19W TO 04N32W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 39W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CUTS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N98W...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EVIDENT...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG AND KBBF. THE CLOUD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
CHANGING FROM LIFR TO IFR...AND RETURNING TO LIFR...DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. LIFR IN GALVESTON AT KGLS.

IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KGHB...
AND KEIR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KEMK...KGBK...KEHC...KVQT...KGUL... KGRY...AND
KSPR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER VALLEY. MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. IFR IN ROCKPORT TO
VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS/BAY CITY...AND ANGLETON/LAKE
JACKSON. LIFR IN GALVESTON. MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER CITIES...INCLUDING TO BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR AND CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...RAINSHOWERS
WITH THUNDER IN LAKE CHARLES. MVFR IN LAFAYETTE. LIGHT RAIN IN
NEW IBERIA. VFR/NO CEILINGS FROM GALLIANO TO PORT FOURCHON TO
BOOTHVILLE. MVFR FROM BATON ROUGE...AND ALL AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...IFR AT THE STENNIS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. MVFR IN GULFPORT. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. ALABAMA...
VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA...INTO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE
TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM JAMAICA EASTWARD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AS
IT GOES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 17N NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT
31/0300 UTC. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY ONE. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
ONE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT MORE NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ON DAY ONE TO THE WEST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL END UP MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AND TO THE EAST OF
HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO STARTS AS
NORTHWESTERLY...AND THEN IT EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHERLY. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE AREA OF
BELIZE/GUATEMALA/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N86W BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 26N AT THE START OF DAY ONE. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH EITHER
ONE BROAD INVERTED TROUGH...OR A SERIES OF SHORT-TERM INVERTED
TROUGHS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 13N NORTHWARD.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05
IN GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N72W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N50W TO 28N60W...AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N60W TO 27N72W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N74W 24N76W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD FROM 20W EASTWARD TO AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MOROCCO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
23N25W 16N40W 15N56W 12N67W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG
THE COAST OF AFRICA...FROM 31N12W TO 25N15W TO 21N23W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N40W 25N57W AND
25N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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