[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AGADIR AND MADEIRA ZONES IN THE
METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REACH 8 TO 9 IN
THE BEAUFORT SCALE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO
THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT AT
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 07N12W
TO 03N18W TO 0N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 0N24W AND THEN
CONTINUES ALONG 01S37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ARE N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 03W AND 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06S TO 04N W OF 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE NW ATLC
CONTINUE TO EXTEND SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WHILE LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT CONTINUES
TO BUILD W OF 90W. MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED BY THE SUB-TROPICAL JET INTO NORTHERN GULF WHERE A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED TO THE NW
BASIN BY SW FLOW...THUS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THIS FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 90W...HOWEVER IT MAY
EXTEND S TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AS INDICATED BY THE GOES IFR
PRODUCT. VESSELS AND BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THIS
REGION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES. THE PRES GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN IN THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF FRI MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN
FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW N OF 25N W OF 86W. MODERATE TO FRESH
RETURN FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN FRI THROUGH SAT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS
DEEPENS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SHALLOW MOISTURE
OVER CUBA SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ISLAND COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS.
STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ACROSS THE BASIN
EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH WINDS
CONTINUE TO BLOW. EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN...NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS
DEEPENS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. LIFTING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS ENHANCING SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N54W SW TO 26N72W. WEST OF THE
FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N72W TO 22N77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 69W
AND 75W...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 30N AND WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N14W SW TO 23N21W WHERE IT STARTS TO
DISSIPATE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT N OF 29N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE REMAINDER BASIN
CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE THAT SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONT IN THE
SW N ATLC WILL STALL AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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