[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AGADIR AND
MADEIRA ZONES IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING BEAUFORT FORCE 8...34-40 KT. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT AT WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W
TO THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 02N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 02N21W AND CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAIL E OF 32W BETWEEN
04N-03S.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE CONUS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE BASIN ALOFT KEEPING THE
AREA WITH A NW FLOW. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN
TRANSPORTED INTO THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 24N AND W OF 90W.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THIS
AREA ALSO. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE
FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE NW
GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION AND WINDS/SEAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS
THE E ATLANTIC AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THESE WINDS SUPPORTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
AND ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AS STRONG
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PERSIST...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE REMNANTS OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS W ATLANTIC WATERS
MAINLY W OF 72W...AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A
WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N74W...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 24N76W. TO
THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N72W TO 32N57W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAIL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 38N28W. OVER THE FAR E
ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N32W TO 32N14W. GALE
FORCE WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH
CONVECTION. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC WILL
SUBSIDE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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