[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN MADEIRA...
AGADIR...AND CANARIAS...UNTIL 31/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS
OF...NORTH OR NORTHEAST GALE OR SEVERE GALE IN AGADIR AND
TARFAYA. NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 11N16W 04N19W 01N31W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 12W AND 14W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 05W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 07W AND 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 13W AND 18W...
AND FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 21W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 03N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 24W AND 47W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS CROSSED
THE ENTIRE STATE OF FLORIDA. THE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS PUSHING HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PRACTICALLY THE WHOLE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
WEST TO EAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF CUBA...INTO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KEIR...KVQT...AND KGRY.

IFR CONDITIONS...KGLS AND KXIH.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...AND KGBK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR AND MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY. LIFR AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. IFR AND MVFR IN THE REST OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LIFR IN ROCKPORT TO VICTORIA/
PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS/BAY CITY. IFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. LIFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COUNTIES. LIFR FROM
HOUSTON NORTHWARD TO HUNTSVILLE. IFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LIFR IN JASPER. LOUISIANA...IFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/THE
SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF LOUISIANA. MISSISSIPPI...IFR IN GULFPORT
AND BILOXI. ALABAMA...LIFR AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT.
FLORIDA...LIFR AT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN
FORT MYERS. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 66W EASTWARD...WITH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 19N45W TO 14N65W TROUGH.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 13N NORTHWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SPANS THE AREA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO AFTER THE TROUGH HAS CLEARED
THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTWARD FOR ABOUT 360
NM...AND THEN IT WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD REACHING SOUTHEASTERN
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE
START OF DAY ONE. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
TROUGH FOR ALL OF DAY ONE...EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH EAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY...AND
THEN CYCLONIC WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF DAY TWO...WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW ENDING DAY TWO ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS
SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 30N74W...TO 25N77W IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 64W AND 80W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N57W TO 27N59W AND BECOMING LESS AND LESS APPARENT TO 20N65W.
THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN REPLACED
BY A SINGLE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N64W
29N70W AND 29N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.92 IN
BERMUDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 24N20W 23N35W
19N45W 14N54W...TO 14N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... ABOUT 200 NM TO 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...
AND ABOUT 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THE PART
OF THE TROUGH THAT IS FROM 36W EASTWARD SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 29N20W 24N30W...CURVING TO 28N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W WITH
THE REST OF THE TROUGH. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH
26N15W 24N40W 10N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 26N16W 22N25W 25N46W 26N62W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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